Australian Grand Prix
Saturday, 23 March 2013 by

Malaysia Pre-Race Analysis

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Rain predicted for Malaysia.
Qualifying Results
Starting Position
1st
Vettel
2nd
Massa
3rd
Alonso
4th
Hamilton
5th
Webber
6th
Rosberg
6th
Raikkonen
8th
Button
9th
Sutil
10th
Perez
11th
Grosjean
12th
Hulkenberg
13th
Ricciardo
14th
Gutirrez
15th
di Resta
16th
Maldonado
17th
Vergne
18th
Bottas
Heavy showers are likely for the race, reports the BBC, which typically means an unpredictable race. Although last year Alonso used the rain gain many positions, usually Malaysia is won from pole or top 3. This is the best indication for race winner. Vettel might look strong by taking pole by almost a second, however, he did the same in Australia yet finished 3rd. It looks as though the Red Bull is very quick on a single lap but wears out the tires very quickly. By contrast, the Ferrari appears to handle the tires very well. Also, the Ferrari is typically quick in the rain, suggesting Alonso's odds of 11/5 (3.20) from Blue Square are good value for money as are Massa's odds of 10/1 (11.00) from Blue Square. The key question is how quick the Red Bull is in the rain. It is difficult to determine if Vettel's pace was simply because of the single lap pace of the Red Bull or that it is strong in the rain. On this basis his odds of 11/5 (3.20) from Blue Square are good.

Grid position of race winner since 2001
Grid Position
Number of times
1st
5
2nd
2
3rd
1
7th
1
9h
1
With the top three drivers looking competitive, spread the bets across them. If betting £10 on race winner then place £4 on Vettel to win £12.80, place £5 on Alonso to win £16 and £1 on Massa to win £11, losing £10 if anyone else wins.

Further down the grid there are few promising bets. The Mercedes appears weak on tire degradation so may struggle at Malaysia, meaning Hamilton's odds of 12/5 (3.40) from Paddy Power for a podium are not vastly appealing. The Lotus is good on tire degradation, however, Raikkonen has a three place grid penalty (see ESPN for details) means reaching the podium from 10th is a big ask.

Lower odds betting like top 6 and top 10 finishes are probably best avoided given the likely rain and the resulting unpredictable retirements it will cause. The rain will make it ideal for live betting though.

Odds above accurate at Saturday 23rd, 16.30 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Read 2310 times Last modified on Saturday, 23 March 2013 16:39