Australian Grand Prix
Sunday, 21 April 2013 by

Bahrain Pre-Race Analysis

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Alonso the clear favorite for victory at Bahrain

The bookies have correctly assessed the odds for race winner. Although starting in 3rd, Alonso is in the strongest position, his odds of 2.50 from Bet 365 being a reasonable bet. Rosberg's Mercedes will suffer far higher levels of tire degradation than the Ferrari, forcing him to conserve tires or even make an extra pitstop. Vettel's Red Bull will be strong in the race but the previous races this year suggests Alonso's race pace in the Ferrari is superior. Also, this is a course that the Ferrari typically wins on. Vettel's odds at 3.75 from SkyBet are not terrible and could be worth a small back up bet but focus on Alonso for race winner.

There are two other drivers to watch. Massa starts in 4th on the harder tire. It unclear which tire will be more competitive but Massa should certainly find himself in a strong position as the race progresses. The front runners will pit earlier, giving him clear air to race and choose his moment to pit for fresh tires. Strategically, Massa is in an excellent position in a quick car. His odds of 11.00 from Bet 365 for race winner would be worth betting were it not for the possibility of having to hand the victory over to Alonso. His odds for a podium at 2.83 from Paddy Power is good value for money. Also, Raikkonen starting from 8th may try and emulate Australia, using the superior tire degradation to stop one less time than his rivals. Whilst there is no specific reason to believe he will try this, since he used this plan to win Australia it is a threat and odds of 9.00 from Bet 365 are reasonable. Focusing on Alonso with small back up bets on Massa and Raikkonen is recommended.

The two force India cars start in 5th and 6th. Although looking usually strong, they cannot be recommended for a top 6 finish. Webber and Hamilton only start behind them due to grid penalties and are likely to pass them during the race. Hamilton's odds of a top 6 finish at 2.2 from Bet 365 look like good value, as does Webber's odds for top 6 at 1.72 from Betfair.

Odds above accurate at Saturday 21st, 09.54 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Read 2401 times Last modified on Sunday, 21 April 2013 08:58

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