Belgian Grand Prix
Friday, 31 August 2012 by

Belgium Pre-Weekend Analysis

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The 12th Race of 2012, Belgium Grand Prix at Spa.

Previous Winners
2011
Vettel
2010
Hamiltonv
2009
Raikkonen
2008
Massa
2007
Raikkonen
2006
Not Held
2005
Raikkonen
2004
Raikkonen
2003
Not Held
2002
Schumacher
2001
Schumacher
After the long summer break Formula One returns to arguably the greatest track on the calendar. Belgium may prove very different to the recent races this season. After a series of warm tracks during the summer, Belgium will probably be the coldest track so far this season, substantially affecting some teams. Rain is not current forecast for qualifying or the race but Spa is renowned for unpredictable weather changes that develops suddenly. Also, coming back from the break many cars will have substantial upgrades that could shift the balance of power.

The high speed corners of Spa suit the Red Bull best. They managed 1st and 2nd position in 2011 and could have done similar in 2010 except for a few mistakes. Webber was on pole, dropped to 6th after after a terrible start but eventually finished 2nd whilst Vettel was running well until accidentally hitting Button. Vettel is second favourite for victory at 4/1 (5.0) from Skybet and 21/20 (2.05) for a podium from Betfair. These are good odds for a track suiting the Red Bull. Webber's odds of 133/10 (14.3) for victory from Betfair and 11/4 (3.75) for a podium from Paddy Power are excellent value for money on a track he finished 2nd on for the last two years. Top 6 for Webber at 18/25 (1.72) from Bet365 are also good odds.

Hamilton is favourite for victory after his impressive pace at Hungary and on a course he has won before. However, although he is likely be in the hunt for victory, with so many strong competitors 3/1 (4.0) from Skybet is not vastly good value for money. Button faces a paradox at this year Belgium GP: Button's excels in changing weather conditions likes those typical of Spa but the McLaren is currently extremely weak in the rain so Button is unlikely to win in either dry or wet conditions.

Belgium is arguably one of Alonso's weaker tracks, having never won Spa. However, this season Alonso has truly shown his skill in the rain, taking pole on both wet qualifying sessions this season. 41/5 (9.2) from Betfair is good if rain occurs so Alonso is one to watch for Saturday live betting.

The big unknown are Lotus who have unusually low odds. They were exceptional in Hungary, Spa will be their first race with their new Double DRS and Raikkonen has won here every single time he has finished the race. However, Lotus seem to suit the warmest courses best. Both drivers got podiums in Bahrain and Hungary, Raikkoen took the podium in Spain and Valencia whilst Grosjean just missed out with a 4th in Spain and was 2nd in Valencia when he suffered from a mechanical failure. Spa may be the coldest track this year, a likely maximum 20 degrees (see F1 Weather for details) compared to 46 in Hungary. Unless the new Double DRS is exceptionally powerful victory looks unlikely, a podium is much safer but waiting until pace of Lotus is revealed in the practice sessions and qualifying is advised.

Odds above accurate at Friday 31st, 12.43 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Image © TiM_BiG

Read 1496 times Last modified on Sunday, 02 September 2012 00:30

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