Belgian Grand Prix
Saturday, 1 September 2012 by

Belgium Pre-Qualifying Analysis

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Rain washes out FP1 and FP2
Free Practice Results
FP3
1st
Alonso
2nd
Raikkonen
3rd
Perez
4th
Kobayash
5th
Button
6th
Massa
7th
Webber
8th
Grosjean
9th
Vettel
10th
di Resta
11th
Maldonado
12th
Hamilton
13th
Schumacher
14th
Hulkenberg
15th
Vergn
16th
Ricciardo
17th
Senna
18th
Kovalainen
19th
Pic
20th
Glock
21nd
Petrov
22nd
de la Rosa
23rd
Karthikeyan
24th
Rosberg
With FP1 and FP2 completely washed out with torrential rain the only meaningful information for the rest of the weekend came from free practice three. The session was quite unusual with the two favourites for poll setting low times. Neither Vettel's 9th or Hamilton's 12th look particularly competitive. Their odds are 31/10 (4.10) from Betfair and 18/5 (4.60) from Betfair respectively and these do not look like value for money. With the Red Bull usually doing well Vettel is the better bet but looking elsewhere is advised.

Alonso and Raikkoen came 1st and 2nd. Alonso has odds of 7/1 (8.00) from Blue Square but he not taken poll in two years except for in the wet. Raikkonen has odds of 8/1 (9.00) from Bet 365 but he has not qualified higher than 4th this season. These two bets look like better value for money than Hamilton or Vettel but at this stage there is little reason to favour any of these four to take pole. With so much uncertainty, it might be advised to avoid qualifying bets and save money for the race when the grid order is known.

The major surprise is the two Saubers, Perez coming 3rd and Kobayashi coming 4th. Betting on poll would be extremely ambitious but this pace suggests they will qualify better than normal and do well in the race. This is in line with the trend of the Sauber preferring high speed courses and cold weather. Perez for a podium at 14/1 (15.00) from SkyBet looks like good value for money after his podiums in Malaysia and Canada. Also recommended are Perez finishing top 6 at 11/4 (3.75) from Bet 365 and Kobayashi top 6 at 3/1 (4.00) from Bet 365.

There are two important developments. Lotus will not run their new double DRS reports ESPN whilst Webber has a five place grid penalty after a gear box change reports ESPN.

Odds above accurate at Saturday 1st, 11.55 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Image © nic_r

Read 2565 times Last modified on Sunday, 02 September 2012 00:32

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