Brazil Pre-Race Analysis

Heavy rain on championship deciding race
Qualifying Results
Starting Position
1st
Hamilton
2nd
Button
3rd
Webber
4th
Vettel
5th
Massa
6th
Hulkenberg
7th
Alonso
8th
Raikkonen
9th
Rosberg
10th
di Resta
11th
Senna
12th
Perez
13th
Schumacher
14th
Kobayashi
15th
Recciardo
16th
Maldonado*
17th
Vergne
18th
Grosjean
*Maldonado – 10 place penalty.
Rain is currently predicted (http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/3448439) though the weather system of Interlagos is notoriously unpredictable. Assuming it is a wet race then making firm predictions is extremely difficult; anyone could spin off, anyone could be caught on the wrong tire in changing conditions or anyone could see their competitors gain a free pitstop due to the safety car. However, there are a few key factors that could help guess correctly.

In previous years Interlagos has been a Red Bull hunting ground. Webber won in 2009 and 2011 whilst coming 2nd in 2010. Vettel won in 2010, came 2nd in 2011 and 4th in 2009 (having qualified 16th). Whilst they were both beaten by the McLarens it is possible that Red Bull went for a wet weather setup whilst McLaren were more balanced on the setup. This would make sense since a wet race is probably the only chance Vettel has of losing the championship so Red Bull would compensate with a wet weather setup. Meanwhile, earlier in the season the McLaren was extremely poor in wet conditions. Since there has not been a wet race since Germany it is possible this may not be true due to developments of the car. Whilst there are no certainties, the Red Bulls look substantially stronger for victory than the McLarens providing there is substantial rain. Vettel's odds of 8/1 (9.00) from Betfair are excellent value for money. Given the uncertainty of a wet race, a small back up bet on Webber at odds of 11/1 (12.00) from Bet 365 is recommended.

The big uncertainty is Alonso. The Ferrari is good in wet conditions but not truly dominant. His victory in Malaysia involved much skill but also a level of luck. Having never won at Interlagos before and being quite far down the field it is difficult to imagine him beating the Red Bulls. Whilst not impossible, higher odds than those Vettel has would be needed to make Alonso good value for money yet he has near comparable odds of 9/1 (10.00) from SkyBet. Keep a close eye on him for live betting but currently he is not good value for money.

Massa could have an impressive race. The Ferrari does well in the wet, Massa has won here twice previously, he is racing almost as well as Alonso currently and had qualified higher. A win would be unlikely, having not won in other two years and probably having to move aside for Alonso. A podium might be possible and odds of 5/1 (6.00) from Paddy Power is good value for money, even given the possibility having having to hand it to Alonso.

As for the championship, Alonso has odds of 4.1 (5.00) to win from Bet 365 whilst having odds of 5/4 (2.25) for a podium from Bet 365. Since Alonso has to take a podium to win the championship reguardless of what happens to Vettel, betting on a podium is probably wiser if you think there is a realistic change of Alonso being crowned world drivers champion.

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Odds above accurate at Sunday 25th, 12.59 GMT. Click to see live odds.

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