German Grand Prix
Sunday, 22 July 2012 by

Hockenheim Qualifying Analysis

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Alonso takes pole in wet qualifying two races in a row

Qualifying Results
Starting Position
1st
Alonso
2nd
Vettel
3rd
Webber
4th
Schumacher
5th
Hulkenberg
6th
Maldonado
6th
Button
8th
Hamilton
9th
di Resta
10th
Raikkonen
11th
Ricciardo
12th
Perez
13th
Kobayashi
14th
Massa
15th
Grosjean
16th
Senna
17th
Rosberg
18th
Vergne

Saturday saw a very unusual qualifying session, with fastest times in each round being set on a different type of tire. Raikkonen was half a second faster in the dry. Hamilton was second in Q1 and half a second quickest on intermediates in Q2. Unfortunately, the McLaren struggles to get heat into the full wet tires, leaving him in 7th. Alsonso took pole with Vettel in second. This is quite incredible, Alonso went two years without topping qualifying and now took pole twice in a row. This may suggest the Ferrari is improving or could speak of Alonso's skill in the rain.

The big factor is rain. Currently dry weather is predicted. If so, Alonso or Vettel are the only realistic bets, with Hockenheim almost always won from front of the grid. Also, other usual race winners will be held up by Hulkenberg and then have to pass Schumacher, giving the Alonso and Vettel a huge advantage. Vettel may have a number of advantages. At Hockenheim, there is little advantage to starting on either side of the track. Also, one stopping at Hockenheim might be the best strategy, to the disadvantage of Ferrari who struggle with the harder tire. It will be close so live betting might be best. However, with a few advantages and slightly higher odds, Vettel is the better bet. Both drivers have odds of 2.1 (3.00) from StanJames Schumacher would be an outsider bet, usually struggling to keep up with the Red Bull and Ferrari. The Mercedes seems temperamental, such as complete dominance in China and simply falling back from good qualifying in Silverstone. With very high odds of 11/1 (12.00) from 888sport, he might be worth a bet on Hockenheim being a course the Mercedes can deliver pace on.

If it rain then the victory is more open. Alonso seems excellent in the rain so may have an edge over Vettel. Watch Schumacher and Button also, so this may be one for live betting.

Odds above accurate at Sunday 22nd, 00.52 GMT. Click to see live odds.

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Read 1461 times Last modified on Sunday, 02 September 2012 22:52

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