Italian Grand Prix
Friday, 7 September 2012 by

Italy Pre-Qualifying Analysis

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Button looking resurgent taking 2nd in both practice sessions
Free Practice Results
FP1
FP2
Schumacher
Hamilton
Button
Button
Rosberg
Alonso
Alonso
Rosberg
Massa
Rosberg
Hamilton
Raikkonen
Raikkonen
di Resta
Perez
Hulkenberg
Webber
Perez
Maldonado
Schumacher
Vettel
Webber
Hulkenberg
Vettel
Bottas
Maldonado
Kobayashi
Ricciardo
d'Ambrosia
Ricciardo
Banchi
Kobayashi
Ricciardo
Senna
Vergne
Kovalainen
With Hamilton topping FP2 and Button taking 2nd in both sessions McLaren look powerful. As usual, the Red Bulls do high fuel race runs until FP3 so their lack of pace can be discounted. Alonso set some extremely competitive lap times despite suffering from mechanical issues in both sessions. Mercedes also ran well with Schumacher setting the fastest time in FP1 and managed 8th in FP2 despite his DRS failing.

As discussed in the previous blog entry, Monza is won from pole more than most circuits. Instead of betting on pole postion decide who you think will be on pole and bet on them as a race winner instead, taking advantage of the higher odds prior to qualifying. With Alonso and Button so rarely taking pole Hamilton is currently the favourite so has relatively low odds of 49/20 (3.75) from Blue Square. Since the top 8 drivers were within a quarter of a second of Hamilton these are not great odd. Button at 9/2 (5.50) from Betfair and Alonso at 5/1 (6.00) from SkyBet seem too ambitious given how rarely they take pole (Button took pole in the last race but since that was his first pole position with McLaren he would truly have had to reinvent his performance to become a regular pole sitter). Hamilton's main contender are probably Red Bull. Since they usually perform well here 81/10 (9.10) from Betfair is incredibly good odds for Vettel to win on Sunday. Webber has a massive 19/1 (20.00) from Betfair but Vettel has the edge since Webber has yet to take pole this season. With the Red Bulls yet to reveal their pace there is much uncertainty but with Hamilton only slightly quicker than the Force India the high odds of the Red Bulls look like the best bet.

The major exception to betting on race winner instead of pole sitting is Mercedes. Schumacher's DRS failure may have cost as much as one second a lap so expect them to be extremely competitive. However, they usually fall back during the race so betting on qualifying is advised. 12/1 (13.00) for Schumacher and 14/1 (15.00) for Rosberg from SkyBet for pole is good value, as is 119/50 (3.38) and 57/20 (3.85) respectively for qualifying top 3 from Betfair.

Odds above accurate at Saturday 7th, 18.38 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Image © nic_r

Read 1516 times Last modified on Friday, 07 September 2012 19:11

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