Italian Grand Prix
Sunday, 9 September 2012 by

Italy Pre-Race Analysis

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Alonso's denied pole by mechanical failure
Qualifying Results
Starting Position
1st
Hamilton
2nd
Button
3rd
Massa
4th
di Resta*
5th
Schumacher
6th
Vettel
7th
Rosberg
8th
Raikkonen
9th
Kobayashi
10th
Alonso
11th
Webber
12th
Maldonado*
13th
Perez
14th
Senna
15th
Recciardo
16th
d'Ambrosio
17th
Vergne
18th
Kovalainen
*di Resta – 5 place penalty.
*Maldonado – 10 place penalty.

Alonso set the quickest time in Q1 and Q2 but a mechanical failure by a part of his car that cost only a single Euro left him 10th on the grid. Hamilton has been looking like his main competitor all weekend and took pole position. His odds of 4/5 (1.80) from Blue Square might look low but Monza has been won from pole on nine of the last eleven races. Although substantial money would have to be risked to see a large profit it is very difficult to recommend any other driver for victory. Button has 133/50 (3.66) from Betfair and might at best be worth a back up bet. If betting £10, put £7 on Hamilton and £3 on Button to see £5.60 profit for a Hamilton victory, £1 profit for a Button victory and a £10 loss for anyone else. However, with pole so crucial at Monza just focusing on Hamilton is only slightly riskier but probably wiser.

Further down the field immense amounts of profit could be made but you'd be gambling on the McLaren's suffering from a mechanical fault, higher than average tire degradation or simply lacking race pace. Massa has 19/1 (20.0), Schumacher 56/1 (57.0) and Vettel 26/1 (27.00) all from Betfair. An alternative betting approach would be placing a smaller amount of money on each of these rather than betting on the McLarens. Risking £3 would see profits of £19, £56 and £26 respectively. The big outsider would Alonso, looking like he has the fastest car but being so far back odds of 12/ 1(13.0) from SkyBet cannot be recommended.

Assuming the McLarens race off into the distance then the most interesting question is who takes the final step on the podium. Massa has odds of 9/4 (3.25) from Bet 365, Schumacher 39/10 (4.90) from Betfair and Vettel 11/4 (3.75) from Bet 365. With Massa being further up the field, Schumacher having the car with the top speed and Vettel usually finishing close to the podium there is very little to choose between them. With highest odds and both Mercedes running well Schumacher is probably the bet best. Finally, Rosberg is 6th on the grid and is looking undervalued for a top 6 finish at 3/2 (2.50) from Betfair. Although he will have to hold off Raikkonen or pass Vettel to remain top 6 his Mercedes should have the pace for this to be a serious possibility.

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