Spanish Grand Prix
Sunday, 9 June 2013 by

Canada Pre-Race Analysis

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Uncertain weather makes this one for live betting

Rain is predicted for Montreal this afternoon reports the BBC, though it is unclear if it will rain directly onto the track. Currently, Vettel looks by far strongest in wet weather conditions. He qualified over half a second quicker in Australia, over a second quicker in Malaysia, quickest in Q2 of Monaco, all of which were in wet conditions. There has yet to be rain in a race so far this year so it is uncertain how to translate Vettel's speed in those sessions for the race today. However, he certainly looks strongest. Also, the problems with tire degradation are usually enhanced with warm weather, so the Ferrari and the Lotus may not have their race pace advantage compared to the Red Bull. Vettel's odds of 91/100 (1.91) from SkyBet are reasonable if it rains though there are so many uncertainties that keeping bets low is recommended.

Hamilton thinks the Mercedes should not have its typical tire degradation problem reports ESPN. Whilst their tire degradation was far better in Monoco than Bahrain and Spain, at Monaco Rosberg was clearly driving very conservatively, suggesting their tire problems are not fully solved.

Alonso was quickest in FP2 during dry conditions and this is a circuit which the BBC''s Gary Anderson thinks suits the Ferrari well with its high speed corners and long straights. Odds of 7/2 (4.50) from Paddy Power are reasonable if it does not rain, though to win from 6th will be quite a result to once again keeping bets low are recommended.

Raikkonen's only hope would be to stop one time less than the others. However, he did this last year and only finished 8th, so he is unlikely to have any chance of victory.

The Force India looks strong this week, Di Resta quickest in FP1 and Sutil second quickest in FP3. Di Resta starts 17th but should move forward. His odds of 5/4 (2.25) from Bet 365 for a points finish are good.

If it rains then bet on Vettel, if it is dry then bet on Alonso. However, since the weather may change as the race progresses, this looks like one for live betting.

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