Spanish Grand Prix
Sunday, 30 June 2013 by

Silverstone Pre-Race Analysis

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Hamilton looks strong if his tires hold up

Once again both Mercedes have taken the front row. Usually, this is followed by dropping back heavily during the race. However, lately their tire degradation seems less an issue than normal. Whilst their win in Monaco may have been due to the unique nature of that track, both Mercedes finished only one place lower than they started in Canada. Hamilton's odds of 7/2 (4.50) from SkyBet look good value for money, gambling on the tire degredation of the Mercedes not being so severe. Meanwhile, the Red Bull usually wins at Silverstone and Vettel has looked strong in almost every race this year. His odds of 5/4 (2.25) from Paddy Power are reasonable so betting on both Hamilton and Vettel is recommended. If betting £10, place £5 on Vettel to win £1.25 and £5 on Hamiton to win £12.5 and lose £10 if anyone else wins. Rosberg has looked weaker than Hamilton all throughout qualifying and his 2nd position was considerably slower than Hamilton's, so Hamilton looks the far stronger bet. A possible wildcard is Webber, with odds of 17/2 (9.50) from Bet 365. Webber usually excels at Silverstone but this year he seems much weaker than Vettel. With every Webber victory in his F1 career coming from a front row start, it seems unlikely he could take a 3rd victory at Silverstone.

With Ricciardo and Sutil in 5th and 6th after Di Resta's demotion, Raikkonen and Alonso have almost no chance of victory. Whilst they usually have good race pace, the hope of winning due to superior tire wear requires a much higher temperature than found in a British summer. This makes focusing on Hamilton and Vettel much safer than it usually would be.

Rosberg has odds of 233/100 (3.33) from Bet 365 for a podium finish. Whilst still dependent on having reasonable tire wear, since Webber is prone to weak starts and since there are much slower cars behind them this is a much safer bet than going for victory. Ricciardo has reasonable odds for a top 10 finish at 2/1 (1.50) from SkyBet. He is certainly likely to be passed by Alonso, Raikkonen and probably Grosjean but another three cars would also have pass him to take him out of the top 10.

Finally, SkyBet are offering odds on who will replace Webber next year SkyBet are offering odds on who will replace Webber next year. Whilst Raikkonen certainly is most likely to take the seat, placing a pound or two on Sutil might be worthwhile for a nice outsider odds of 32/1 (33.00).

Odds above accurate at Sunday 30th, 03.55 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Read 1428 times Last modified on Sunday, 30 June 2013 03:03