Spanish Grand Prix
Sunday, 7 July 2013 by

German Pre-Race Analysis

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New tires likely to be just as important as before

The most obvious contenders for victory are Hamilton and Vettel, repeating their battle at Silverstone. The past few races have shown that Mercedes has solved their tire issues. The race pace of the Red Bull and Mercedes currently looks about equal. Since Hamilton is a position ahead and has better odds at 5/2 (3.50) from Paddy Power compared with 5/4 (2.25) for Vettel to win from SkyBet, Hamilton looks better value.

The warm conditions should substantially help Raikkonen and Alonso. Raikkonen might try and stop one less time like he did in his victory in Australia. Even if he can't stop one less time, the warm temperature will make Raikkonen extremely competitive. With much higher odds than the front runners at 9/1 (10.00) from Paddy Power, his odds are excellent value. Meanwhile, Alonso starts tomorrow on the harder of the two tires. The medium tire should allow Alonso to run a much longer first stint which will be a substantial tactical advantage, whereas other front running cars are likely to stop early and come out in traffic. His odds of 10/1 (11.00) from SkyBet are reasonable.

The biggest uncertainty are the new tires. On this basis, the German GP will be more of a gamble than usual. With so much uncertainty, focusing on the higher odds of Raikkonen and Alonso is probably best. Starting in 4th in a car suiting the high temperature, Raikkonen is the recommended bet.

Given how much potential Lotus has, Raikkonen for a podium has good odds at 7/5 (2.40) from Paddy Power whilst Grosjeans odds of 10/1 (11.00) for a podium from SkyBet are excellent.

Odds above accurate at Sunday 7th, 02.01 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Read 1274 times Last modified on Saturday, 05 October 2013 23:25