Spanish Grand Prix
Sunday, 13 October 2013 by

Japan Pre-Race Analysis

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Vettel strongest even from 2nd position

Despite being out qualified by Webber for the first time this season, Vettel is still the favourite at Suzuka this year. Given that Vettel has won the Japanese GP three times before, having been quicker consistently than Webber all year and with Webber relatively weak at race starts, Vettel clearly has the advantage. Perhaps the main danger Vettel faces is a recurrence of the Kers failure during the race. On this basis, his odds of 61/100 (1.61) from SkyBet are too low to be good value. Webber's odds of 9/4 (3.25) from Paddy Power are better but are still not great value for money. Ultimately, there is too much uncertainty over how bad Webber's start will be and how well Vettel's Kers unit will cope so betting elsewhere is advised.

SkyBet and Grosjean's odds of 3/2 (2.50) from Bet 365 for podium finishes are both good value. Starting in 3rd and 4th respectively, they are immediately followed by Massa, Rosberg and Hulkenberg, all of whom are unlikely to pass them. You are therefore gambling against Alonso or Raikkonen being able make up so many places. Whilst both Alonso and Raikkonen are very skilled at making good use of the circumstances, their recent success at ending up on the podium despite starting quite low is partially dependent upon luck – such as the safety car at Korea assisting Raikkonen greatly. The fight between Hamilton and Grosjean will be very interesting but after the Mercedes has failed to take a podium in the last three races whilst have taken three podiums between their drivers in the last three races, Grosjean should have the advantage.

Odds above accurate at Sunday 13th, 01.10 GMT. Click to see live odds.

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