Spanish Grand Prix
Saturday, 26 October 2013 by

India Pre-Race Analysis

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Tyre choice looking crucial

The soft tyre at India this years looks to far less durability than a typical race. There are some fears it will not even last a full lap before starting to lose speed. It is very likely that all those starting on the soft tire will have to pit within five to ten laps. This means Vettel, Rosberg, Hamilton, Massa, Raikkonen, and Hulkenburg will all pit early, probably putting them behind at least Webber, Alonso, Perez and Button.

Beyond mechanical problems only the Red Bull's are competitive for victory, being about 0.7 of a second quicker on either tyre. This puts Webber in a good position to win. After his first stop, Vettel will be slowed down as he then passes Alonso and the two McLarens. By contrast, Webber first pit stop will come much later when the field has spread out, meaning he will probably come out in clear air. Every lap Vettel spends getting past another car will cost him around 0.7 second, so unless he clears them quickly Webber should be able to put a considerable lead on him. It should still be a close fight but Webber's odds of 389/100 (4.89) from Betfair are very good value compared to Vettel's odds of 9/25 (1.36) from Paddy Power.

Under the same logic, Alonso is well placed for a podium, especially since he was quickest behind the Red Bull's in third practise. However, his odds are not brilliant at 5/4 (2.25) from SkyBet. They are better than his competitors but ultimately there is still great uncertainty over how long the tyres will last. Meanwhile, if those starting on the soft tyre are turn out not to be at a huge disadvantage, then many cars are looking competitive for that third podium position, so betting else where is recommended.

Without being able to estimate how long the soft tyre will last, there is much uncertainty over this race. Whilst Alonso has the edge over his rivals for a podium, his odds are not great enough to be worth a gamble. By contrast, Webber and Vettel are both equally well placed or perhaps Webber has the advantage and in this case Webber has far higher odds than Vettel. However, caution must be recommended given the uncertainty over the tyres.

Odds above accurate at Saturday 26th, 22.46 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Read 3187 times Last modified on Saturday, 26 October 2013 22:50