Spanish Grand Prix
Sunday, 24 November 2013 by

Brazil Pre-Race Analysis

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Rain best hope breaking Vettel's serious of victories

As usual, Vettel is the clear favourite to win, with odds of 33/100 (1.33) from Paddy Power. However, rain is currently predicted throughout the race according to BBC Weather. Vettel's car is clearly the quickest but the chaos and confusion of a wet race makes his low odds far too risky.

Whilst his competitors will still struggle to beat Vettel, the high odds of all other drivers makes them far better value given the opportunities opened by a wet race. Rosberg's odds of 52/5 (11.4) from Betfair are very attractive after coming first in both FP1 and FP2 (whilst not running in FP3). Also, the rain will mean track temperatures will be relatively cool, meaning the Mercedes should have better tire degradation than it often has. Meanwhile, Alonso's odds of 9/1 (10.0) from SkyBet are also very nice. Last year the Ferrari was typically the quickest car in the rain (although the lack of wet races this year leaves its performance this year uncertain) and he actually believes he could have gone quicker in qualifying, reports ESPN. Alonso is the master of opportunity, taking advantage of situations rain can supply. Betting on both Rosberg and Alonso to win is quite probably the best approach, accepting the loss if Vettel wins but making a considerable profit if either Rosberg or Alonso take victory, far from an impossibility given how competitive they look.

Rosberg also has good odds for a podium at 11/10 (2.10) from Bet 365. Looking strong in free practise and avoiding the Mercedes main weakness of high tire degradation means he should be very competitive.

Odds above accurate at Sunday 24th, 9.45 GMT. Click to see live odds.

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