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F1 Grand Prix Races

Sunday, 7 July 2013, by

German Pre-Race Analysis

New tires likely to be just as important as before

The most obvious contenders for victory are Hamilton and Vettel, repeating their battle at Silverstone. The past few races have shown that Mercedes has solved their tire issues. The race pace of the Red Bull and Mercedes currently looks about equal. Since Hamilton is a position ahead and has better odds at 5/2 (3.50) from Paddy Power compared with 5/4 (2.25) for Vettel to win from SkyBet, Hamilton looks better value.

The warm conditions should substantially help Raikkonen and Alonso. Raikkonen might try and stop one less time like he did in his victory in Australia. Even if he can't stop one less time, the warm temperature will make Raikkonen extremely competitive. With much higher odds than the front runners at 9/1 (10.00) from Paddy Power, his odds are excellent value. Meanwhile, Alonso starts tomorrow on the harder of the two tires. The medium tire should allow Alonso to run a much longer first stint which will be a substantial tactical advantage, whereas other front running cars are likely to stop early and come out in traffic. His odds of 10/1 (11.00) from SkyBet are reasonable.

The biggest uncertainty are the new tires. On this basis, the German GP will be more of a gamble than usual. With so much uncertainty, focusing on the higher odds of Raikkonen and Alonso is probably best. Starting in 4th in a car suiting the high temperature, Raikkonen is the recommended bet.

Given how much potential Lotus has, Raikkonen for a podium has good odds at 7/5 (2.40) from Paddy Power whilst Grosjeans odds of 10/1 (11.00) for a podium from SkyBet are excellent.

Odds above accurate at Sunday 7th, 02.01 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Sunday, 30 June 2013, by

Silverstone Pre-Race Analysis

Hamilton looks strong if his tires hold up

Once again both Mercedes have taken the front row. Usually, this is followed by dropping back heavily during the race. However, lately their tire degradation seems less an issue than normal. Whilst their win in Monaco may have been due to the unique nature of that track, both Mercedes finished only one place lower than they started in Canada. Hamilton's odds of 7/2 (4.50) from SkyBet look good value for money, gambling on the tire degredation of the Mercedes not being so severe. Meanwhile, the Red Bull usually wins at Silverstone and Vettel has looked strong in almost every race this year. His odds of 5/4 (2.25) from Paddy Power are reasonable so betting on both Hamilton and Vettel is recommended. If betting £10, place £5 on Vettel to win £1.25 and £5 on Hamiton to win £12.5 and lose £10 if anyone else wins. Rosberg has looked weaker than Hamilton all throughout qualifying and his 2nd position was considerably slower than Hamilton's, so Hamilton looks the far stronger bet. A possible wildcard is Webber, with odds of 17/2 (9.50) from Bet 365. Webber usually excels at Silverstone but this year he seems much weaker than Vettel. With every Webber victory in his F1 career coming from a front row start, it seems unlikely he could take a 3rd victory at Silverstone.

With Ricciardo and Sutil in 5th and 6th after Di Resta's demotion, Raikkonen and Alonso have almost no chance of victory. Whilst they usually have good race pace, the hope of winning due to superior tire wear requires a much higher temperature than found in a British summer. This makes focusing on Hamilton and Vettel much safer than it usually would be.

Rosberg has odds of 233/100 (3.33) from Bet 365 for a podium finish. Whilst still dependent on having reasonable tire wear, since Webber is prone to weak starts and since there are much slower cars behind them this is a much safer bet than going for victory. Ricciardo has reasonable odds for a top 10 finish at 2/1 (1.50) from SkyBet. He is certainly likely to be passed by Alonso, Raikkonen and probably Grosjean but another three cars would also have pass him to take him out of the top 10.

Finally, SkyBet are offering odds on who will replace Webber next year SkyBet are offering odds on who will replace Webber next year. Whilst Raikkonen certainly is most likely to take the seat, placing a pound or two on Sutil might be worthwhile for a nice outsider odds of 32/1 (33.00).

Odds above accurate at Sunday 30th, 03.55 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Sunday, 9 June 2013, by

Canada Pre-Race Analysis

Uncertain weather makes this one for live betting

Rain is predicted for Montreal this afternoon reports the BBC, though it is unclear if it will rain directly onto the track. Currently, Vettel looks by far strongest in wet weather conditions. He qualified over half a second quicker in Australia, over a second quicker in Malaysia, quickest in Q2 of Monaco, all of which were in wet conditions. There has yet to be rain in a race so far this year so it is uncertain how to translate Vettel's speed in those sessions for the race today. However, he certainly looks strongest. Also, the problems with tire degradation are usually enhanced with warm weather, so the Ferrari and the Lotus may not have their race pace advantage compared to the Red Bull. Vettel's odds of 91/100 (1.91) from SkyBet are reasonable if it rains though there are so many uncertainties that keeping bets low is recommended.

Hamilton thinks the Mercedes should not have its typical tire degradation problem reports ESPN. Whilst their tire degradation was far better in Monoco than Bahrain and Spain, at Monaco Rosberg was clearly driving very conservatively, suggesting their tire problems are not fully solved.

Alonso was quickest in FP2 during dry conditions and this is a circuit which the BBC''s Gary Anderson thinks suits the Ferrari well with its high speed corners and long straights. Odds of 7/2 (4.50) from Paddy Power are reasonable if it does not rain, though to win from 6th will be quite a result to once again keeping bets low are recommended.

Raikkonen's only hope would be to stop one time less than the others. However, he did this last year and only finished 8th, so he is unlikely to have any chance of victory.

The Force India looks strong this week, Di Resta quickest in FP1 and Sutil second quickest in FP3. Di Resta starts 17th but should move forward. His odds of 5/4 (2.25) from Bet 365 for a points finish are good.

If it rains then bet on Vettel, if it is dry then bet on Alonso. However, since the weather may change as the race progresses, this looks like one for live betting.

Sunday, 26 May 2013, by

Monaco Pre-Race Analysis

Monoco Pre-Race Analysis

Mercedes tire degradation the key factor again

Rosberg takes his third pole position in a row but there is much uncertainty if he can convert it into a win. A front row start is usually required for victory at Monaco but tires in 2013 could render the Mercedes incapable of victory. Rosberg only managed 9th and 6th from his last two pole positions. Monaco will be much more gentle on tire degradation so Rosberg has a much better chance than the previous two races. However, there is very little evidence to suggest either way if the Mercedes can remain competitive throughout the entire race. The strongest evidence is that in free practice Rosberg's long run pace looked better than the previous races, manage a 27 lap run on one set of tires, so victory is not impossible. However, since race victory for Monaco this year depends largely on the unknown variable of Mercedes tire degradation, Rosberg's odds of 2.3 from Paddy Power are not very good value. Hamiltion's odds of 4.3 from SkyBet are not much better, sharing uncertainty over tire degradation and being behind Rosberg.

The Red Bulls look like better value. Whilst the race will likely be decided by how well the Mercedes handles its tires, if Rosberg and Hamilton cannot sustain a good pace then Vettel will be the main beneficiary. Vettel's odds of 4.5 from SkyBet is good value for money. Webber also could be significant. Having won here twice, this is a track he is very competitive at. Whilst Vettel certainly has the upper hand, a small back up bet on his odds of 15.00 from SkyBet might be wise, especially for an accident prone track like Monaco.

Ricciardo usually finishes near the top 10 so is competitive for a points finish from starting in 12th. Given the accident prone nature of Monaco, he will likely finish her than he starts. His odds of 2.62 from Bet 365 are good.

Odds above accurate at Sunday 26rd, 00.52 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Saturday, 25 May 2013, by

Spanish GP

Due to illness there was no update for the Spanish GP. The race largely conformed to the analysis of the Bahrain GP. The Ferrari looks like the strongest car currently and - discounting instances of terrible luck at Bahrain that affected both Alonso and Massa - we can expect Alonso to challenge for wins much more often than 2012 whilst Massa is likely to get many more podium finishes than 2012.

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