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F1 Grand Prix Races

Saturday, 17 November 2012, by

USA Pre-Qualifying Analysis

F1 returns to America

Free Practice Results
        FP1
FP2
1st
Vettel
Vettel
2nd
Hamilton
Webber
3rd
Alonso
Alonso
4th
Button
Hamilton
5th
Webber
Button
6th
Massa
Massa
7th
Hulkenberg
Rosberg
8th
Kobayashi
Senna
9th
Rosberg
Kobayashi
10th
Perez
Schumacher
11th
di Resta
Raikkonen
12th
Ricciardo
Maldonado
13th
Vergne
Grosjean
14th
Raikkonen
Perez
15th
Grosjean
Ricciardo
16th
Maldonado
Vergne
17th
Schumacher
Hulkenberg
18th
Pic
di Resta
Although Formula 1 is visiting a new circuit the situation looks very familiar. Vettel is quickest in both free practise sessions and over half a second quicker to the nearest competitor in both. On the surface it looks like an easy victory for Vettel. The Red Bull is currently massively quick and COTA's long sweeping corners suit's Red Bull. However, cautions is advised. Being a new circuit, COTA could throw up some unexpected challenges. Firstly, the first corner is a blind up hill left hand turn. The possibility of a substantial a first corner crash is very real. Secondly, the high heat of Austin might mean tire degradation play a major role during the race. Finally, as highlighted by multiple spins during free practise, the track still lacks grip compared to most courses. Despite the speed of the Red Bull all these factors make victory for any driver is even more uncertain than usual. With all these unknown factors betting large amounts at Austin is not advised.

All this uncertainly make qualifying more important for betting. With the Red Bulls looking so strong it seems unlikely that any other car could beat them in qualifying. Vettel is favorite for pole position with odds of (1.49) from Betfair. However, Webber has odds of 8/1 (9.00) from Betfair which is much better value for money. Over the last four races since since the Red Bull became so dominant, both drivers has been near equal at qualifying. Each race they have qualified next to one another and twice Vettel was in front whilst twice Webber was in front. Judging by those four races there is little reason to favour one driver over the over. Betting on both is advised, try to break even on Vettel and then make profit on Webber. If betting £10 then place £7 on Vettel and £3 on Webber. You make 43p profit is Vettel take pole, £17 if Webber takes pole and lose £10 someone beats them. With Hamilton over a second off the pace in FP2 and Alonso having not taken a dry weather pole in many years this is as safe a bet as you'll likely find this weekend.

Odds above accurate at Friday 17th, 02:50 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Image © mrlaugh

Sunday, 4 November 2012, by

Abu Dhabi Pre Race Analysis

Championship open after Vettel sent to back of grid
Qualifying Results
Starting Position
1st
Hamilton
2nd
Webber
3rd
Maldonado
4th
Raikkonen
5th
Button
6th
Alonso
7th
Rosberg
8th
Massa
9th
Grosjean
10th
Hulkenberg
11th
Perez
12th
di Resta
13th
Schumacher
14th
Senna
15th
Kobayashi
16th
Ricciardo
17th
Vergne
18th
Kovalainen
Hamilton and Vettel looked equal throughout the weekend and although they would have had Webber between them it looked as though race day would see them closely duel. However, Vettel has been demoted to the back of grid for being unable to provide a one litre fuel sample. This shakes up both the race and the championship.

Hamilton is the clear favourite to win with odds of 14/25 (1.57) from Blue Square. Certainly Hamilton looks very strong but far from invincible. During free practise two Vettel was quicker and crucially free practice occurs in the same conditions as the race, unlike the other free practice sessions. Webber came 4th in FP2 but appeared to have a cooling issue so should be quicker during the race. With odds of 22/5 (5.40) from Betfair Webber is reasonable odds, having a very competitive car and with the McLaren being quite prone to mechanical failure. For an outside bet, Raikkonen has odds of 31/1 (32.00) from Betfair. 4th is the joint highest he has qualified this year and generally the Lotus is faster during the race than in qualifying. Also, the Lotus usually performs well in warm weather. A comparison could be made with Hungary, also a very warm track that is also resembles a street circuit; Hamilton looked dominant the entire weekend yet both Lotus drivers came very close to winning. A small bet on Raikkonen for victory is unlikely to pay out but would yield a nice profit if it did.

Raikkonen also looks good for a podium with odds of 2/1 (3.00) from Blue Square. Alonso has odds of 1/1 for a podium from Paddy Power but with Yas Marina being such a difficult course to pass on this is only likely if he gets a good start so probably best watch him for live betting.

Finally, after this race Alonso and Vettel will probably be on about the same number of points. Although Vettel is probably more likely to score higher in the final two races, Alonso’s odds of 9/4 (3.25) from Paddy Power are good value for money given Alonso’s near perfect reliability and ability to score well every race.

Odds above accurate at Sunday 04th, 10.55 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Image © JiteshJagadish

Saturday, 3 November 2012, by

Abu Dhabi Pre-Qualifying Analysis

Vettel faces a challenge.
FP3 Results
Starting Position
1st
Hamilton
2nd
Button
3rd
Vettel
4th
Webber
5th
Hulkenberg
6th
Grosjean
7th
Maldonado
8th
Alonso
9th
Raikkonen
10th
di Resta
11th
Massa
12th
Perez
13th
Rosberg
14th
Schumacher
15th
Kobayashi
16th
Vergne
17th
Senna
18th
Ricciardo
In an interesting turn around after the last few races Hamilton has similar odds for pole as Vettel has. Both drivers have around 1/1 (2.00) for victory. This is mainly due to an unusual free practise three. During the second free practice Vettel was fastest with a 0.2 second lead over Hamilton in 2nd. However, in third practise Vettel suffered from some mechanical difficulties and only started doing quick laps with about five minutes remaining on the clock. For almost the entire session Hamilton was over a second quicker than everyone but his team mate and by the end Vettel was half a second off.

FP3 is usually a good indication of qualifying pace so this would suggest Hamilton is best for pole. However, it is unclear how what time Vettel might have put in had he had no mechanical issues. Webber has usually been within a tenth of a second of Vettel so is a good indication of Vettel’s likely performance. Given that Webber was still half a second behind Hamilton this suggests Vettel lacks pace. However, the free practise sessions should be assessed differently at Abu Dhabi. Since qualifying and the race start just before dusk and goes into the night, the closest conditions to qualifying are FP2 and not FP3. On this basis missing out on most of FP3 was not a huge disadvantage for Vettel. Since was quicker than Hamilton in FP2 it looks like Vettel is the better bet. With so much uncertainty though it is probably wiser to avoid betting on qualifying and wait until the results are before betting on the race.

Odds above accurate at Saturday 3rd, 11.54 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Image © JiteshJagadish

Saturday, 27 October 2012, by

India Pre-Race Analysis

Vettel set to win from pole

Qualifying Results
1st
Vettel
2nd
Webber
3rd
Hamilton
4th
Button
5th
Alonso
6th
Massa
7th
Raikkonen
8th
Perez
9th
Maldonado
10th
Rosberg
11th
Grosjean
12th
Hulkenberg
13th
Senna
14th
Schumacher
15th
Ricciardo
16th
di Resta
17th
Kobayashi
18th
Vergne
Vettel adds another pole position to the record and looks likely collect another win also. His odds are extremely low at 2/5 (1.40) from SkyBet. Although Vettel is most likely to win, betting on other drivers is advised given how little profit can be made from Vettel. Webber has odds of 7/1 (8.00) from Blue Square despite being only a 50th of a second slower than Vettel. If Webber can get a reasonable start then he should be a factor and with such high odds is worth a small bet.

Although Vettel looks to have the advantage, the top 6 cars are separated by only half a second so the fight for the podium should be extremely competitive. Hamilton has odds of 1/1 (2.00) whilst Button and Alonso both have odds of 13/10 (2.30) for the podium, all from Paddy Power. With the pace so similar it probably is a fight between Hamilton who is the highest up of those three drivers and with Alonso who usually finishes higher than he finishes. There is little to choose between them but with higher odds and more reliability Alonso is better value for money. Perez starts in 8th in a car which usually finishes further up than it qualifies so 3/2 (2.50) for a top 6 finish from Bet 365 is highly recommended. Finally, odds of 2/1 (3.00) for Senna to score points from Blue Square are reasonable given how strong he looked during parts of free practice and Q1.

Odds above accurate at Friday 27th, 20:04 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Image © nhayashida

Friday, 26 October 2012, by

India Pre-Qualifying Analysis

Vettel continues his dominance in India

Free Practice Results
        FP1
FP2
1st
Vettel
Vettel
2nd
Button
Webber
3rd
Alonso
Alonso
4th
Hamilton
Rosberg
5th
Webber
Raikkonen
6th
Rosberg
Hamilton
7th
Massa
Button
8th
Schumacher
Hulkenberg
9th
Ricciardo
Grosjean
10th
Raikkonen
Senna
11th
Bottas
di Resta
12th
di Resta
Perez
13th
Kobayashi
Schumacher
14th
Hulkenberg
Ricciardo
15th
Grosjean
Massa
16th
Maldonado
Kobayashi
17th
Vergne
Maldonado
18th
Petrov
Vergne
F1 returns for the second India GP and for the second year running Red Bull look like the team to beat. Vettel heads both free practice sessions, Webber was second in FP2 and the Red Bull has clearly been the fastest car for some races now. The main chance of upsetting this trend could have been Alonso using the experimental exhaust that Massa put to good use in Korea. The Ferrari is clearly extremely competitive with Alonso finishing 3rd in both free practice sessions but it doesn’t look like he has the pace to challenge the Red Bulls.

Vettel is the firm favourite in the battle for pole and his extremely low odds of 2/5 (1.40) from Betfair reflect this. By contrast, Webber has 5/1 (6.00) from Paddy Power for pole which is incredibly good value for money. Vettel has only had one pole position in the last eight races, exactly the same number as pole positions that Webber has taken. This is only the third race since the Red Bull became the dominant car and both Red Bull drivers have each taken the 1st place slot on the grid in those two races. Also, Webber was only a 10th behind Vettel in FP2. Although arguably Vettel does have superior pace a small better on Webber for pole is worthwhile since he has such high odds. Although Alonso looks too weak for pole he appears to have the edge over the McLarens, finishing 3 tenths ahead of Hamilton in FP2. Odds of 1/1(2.00) for Alonso to qualify top 3 from Betfair is a good bet.

Rosberg was running strong in both free practice sessions and may have a successful race after some disappointing recent performances. Odds of 9/2 (5.50) for a top 6 finish from Blue Square and 1/1 (2.00) for a points finish from Bet 365 are both good value given that the Mercedes suits the long straights in India. Also, although Alonso probably has the edge, Hamilton’s odds of 7/5 (2.40) from Blue Square for a podium are very high for such a competitive car.

Odds above accurate at Friday 26th, 23:15 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Image © iCena

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