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F1 Grand Prix Races

Wednesday, 22 August 2012, by

Hungary Post-Race Analysis

After a very long wait Hamilton takes another victory.

Race Results
1st
Hamilton
2nd
Raikkonen
3rd
Grosjean
4th
Vettel
5th
Alonso
6th
Button
7th
Senna
8th
Webber
9th
Massa
10th
Rosberg
11th
Hulkenberg
12th
di Resta
13th
Maldonado
14th
Perez
15th
Ricciardo
16th
Vergne
17th
Kovalainen
18th
Kobayashi
It certainly was not one of Hamilton's easier race wins, with the Lotuses looking like they had the pace to challenge for the win throughout the race. The narrow track of the Hungaroring certain helped keep the Lotus's at bay but Hamilton's mature drive may have equally ensured victory. Rather than his usual aggression, Hamilton drove carefully to make the tires last, so much so that he was putting in faster lap times than Raikkonen in the final few laps despite being on older tires. It bodes well for his championship chances if Hamilton can drive with this type of control for the rest of the season.

ButtonLotus had a tremendous race, showing incredible pace and good strategic decisions. They have been close to winning a couple of times this year and Hungary is their closest yet, so a victory this season looks likely. It's worth noting that the Lotus performs better in warm weather and Hungary was the warmest race this year. Success at other hight temperature track is likely but they will not have that pace at every future race. Hopefully from now on both Lotus drivers will join Vettel, Webber, Hamilton, Button and Alonso as the realistic contenders for victory. 2012 looks likely to continue to be the most diverse in F1 history.

Another race has gone and still no one is challenging Alonso's championship lead. Alonso's 5th position finally breaks his incredible run since Valencia of two wins and a 2nd place. However, his closest rivals, the two Red Bulls, finished in similar positions to Alonso. Instead of decreasing his lead, Hungary meant Hamilton and Raikkonen have now almost caught the Red Bull drivers. With four drivers now taking points from one another, the championship looks like Alonso's to lose. His competitor's only hope is that Ferrari is still lacking pace after the summer break.

Image © nic_r

Next race weekend 31st August to 2nd September. Click to see live odds for Belgium.

Sunday, 5 August 2012, by

Hungary Pre-Race Analysis

Hamilton completely dominated qualifying at the Hungaroring.

Qualifying Results
Starting Position
1st
Hamilton
2nd
Grosjean
3rd
Vettel
4th
Button
5th
Raikkonen
6th
Alonso
6th
Massa
8th
Maldonado
9th
Senna
10th
Hulkenberg
11th
Webber
12th
di Resta
13th
Rosberg
14th
Perez
15th
Kobayashi
16th
Vergne
17th
Schumacher
18th
Ricciardo
Hamilton looks by far strongest for victory and the odds reflect this at 91/100 (1.91) from 888sport. He was quickest in each session of qualifying and twice in free practice. Only two things might unsettle Hamilton. Hungary is a difficult course to pass on and Grosjean is often quick on the start. Also, light rain is predicted, with Hamilton good but not strongest in the rain.

With the race victories at Hungary coming from anywhere in the top four, Button is a strong contender if the rain is heavy. 11/1 (12.00) from Bet 365 are good odds. Button looks good for an outside bet.

Vettel has unusually high odds at 9/2 (5.50) from 888sport. However, he looks to lack the pace of Hamilton, the track is difficult to pass on and Vettel is not especially strong in the rain. However, any driver with those odds are reasonable value for money from 3rd place and especially so for Vettel.

The big unknown is Grosjean. Generally, he finishes higher than he qualifies yet his best finishing position is only 3rd. However, he seems slow in the rain in his few wet races so far and the Lotus usually only becomes competitive in the second half of the race. Grosjean is currently 15/2 (8.50) from Bet 365 but is one for live betting.

Image © nic_r

Odds above accurate at Saturday 28th, 14.40 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Friday, 27 July 2012, by

Hungary Pre-Qualifying Analysis

McLaren likely to continue their usual dominance at Hungary.

Free Practice Results
        FP1
FP2
1st
Hamilton
Hamilton
2nd
Button
Raikkonen
3rd
Alonso
Senna
4th
Rosberg
Massa
5th
Grosjean
Alonso
6th
Schumacher
Button
6th
Raikkonen
di Resta
8th
Bottas
Vettel
9th
Perez
Grosjean
10th
Hulkenberg
Schumacher
11th
Maldonado
Rosberg
12th
Kobayashi
Maldonado
13th
Webber
Hulkenberg
14th
di Resta
Webber
15th
Vettel
Kobayashi
16th
Ricciardo
Vergne
17th
Vergne
Ricciardo
18th
Bianchi
Perez
19th
Petrov
Petrov
20th
Pic
Kovalainen
21nd
Kovalainen
Glock
22nd
Glock
de la Rossa
23rd
de la Rossa
Pic
24th
Clos
Karthikeyan
Hamilton was quickest in both Friday practice sessions and Button was second quickest in FP1. Hamilton has the lowest odds for both qualifying (2/1 (3.00) from 888sport) and the race (3/1 (4.00) from 888sport). Hamilton certainly does look strongest but Button is better value for money for the race victory at 9/1 (8.00) from Bet365. Rain has been predicted for the race and Button is renowned for his skill handling changing weather conditions, including winning here in 2006 starting 14th on the grid. Live betting is advised: the McLaren has struggled in both the last two wet qualifying sessions and it is currently unknown if they face similar difficulties in a wet race.

The biggest surprise from qualifying was the lack of pace from the Red Bulls, both struggling to set top ten times. The rain cancelled any plans for low fuel running from Red Bull so their exact pace is unknown. However, their times were unusually low and both drivers admitted they were off the pace. Despite this Vettel is still second favorite for qualifying (11/4 (3.75) from William Hill) and the race (10/3 (4.33) from Ladbrokes). He does not currently look like value for money although FP3 Saturday morning might give a true indication of potential. Webber has 14/1 (15.00) from Ladbrokes for race victory. Having won more races than everyone but Alonso this year, these seem incredibly good odds for a high profit bet.

The qualifying should be dry which probably rules out a pole position for Alonso. With rain predicted for the race he should prove strong and 9/2 (5.50) from 888sport are good odds. The major issue will be how well the McLaren handles the wet weather. If the McLaren proves weak and given Red Bull's problems, Alonso could be good for victory. If the McLaren can keep pace in the rain then they will probably win. Live betting is recommended.

Image © nic_r

Odds above accurate at Friday 27th, 17.40 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Friday, 27 July 2012, by

Hungary Pre-Weekend Analysis

The 11th Race of 2012, Hungarian Grand Prix at the Hungaroring

Previous Winners
2011
Button
2010
Webber
2009
Hamilton
2008
Kovalainen
2007
Hamilton
2006
Button
2005
Raikkonen
2004
Schumacher
2003
Alonso
2002
Barrichello

The Hungaroring is typically a McLaren hunting ground, with five victories in the last six races. Only Webber, in 2010, has broken their dominance. The race has been won from 4th position or better in all but one race for the last ten years. Strangely, the race has not been won from pole since 2004.

With pole position being no guarantee of success, drivers who are weaker at qualifying usually have good odds for victory. Button has near double Hamliton's odds at 9/1 (10.00) from Ladbrokes and he looked back on the pace at Hockenheim. Webber's odds are almost three times Vettel's at 12/1 (11.00) from StanJames, despite Webber's weakness of qualifying not mattering at the Hungaroring. Raikkonen showed excellent pace in Germany, going from 10th to 4th on the grid. 14/1 (15.00) from StanJames are good odds, though betting on a podium if he does not qualify top 4 may pay off. There might be rain on Sunday so considering waiting on the forecast and bet on Alonso, Button and Schumacher if a wet race is likely.

Vettle is the current favourite at 3/1 (4.00) from 888sport, on a track he has never won. Webber has odds three times as high at 12/1 (13.00) from StanJames despite winning here in 2010. The course suits the Red Bull and Webber has the best odds.

Alonso is second favourite for victory at 7/2 (4.50) from 888sport. With the Red Bull and the McLaren suiting the Hungaroring better than the Ferrari, Alonso's odds will only be good if he qualifies well.

Qualifying bets should depend upon the weather. Alonso took pole in the last two race but he admits the Ferrari is currently weaker than his competitors, suggesting Alonso success at qualifying depends on the rain. With the McLaren weak in the rain, Alonso for pole and Schumacher qualifying top 3 are good bets for wet weather qualifying. If, as currently forecast, qualifying is dry then Vettel and Hamilton are usually equally strongest for pole position. Vettel has 9/4 (3.25) from 888sport but Hamilton's odds are better at 47/2 (4.50) from Bet 365.

Image © Rodefeld

Odds above accurate at Friday 27th, 00.40 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Sunday, 22 July 2012, by

Post Hockenheim Analysis

Alonso's dominance continues, increasing championship lead further

Race Results
1st
Alonso
2nd
Button
3rd
Raikkonen
4th
Kobayashi
5th
Vettel
6th
Perez
6th
Schumacher
8th
Webber
9th
Hulkenberg
10th
Rosberg
11th
di Resta
12th
Massa
13th
Ricciardo
14th
Vergne
15th
Maldonado
16th
Petrov
17th
Senna
18th
Grosjean
Yet another win for Alonso puts him 34 points clear in the championship. His win at Hockenheim, however, was not dominant: Vettel or Button were never further than a few seconds behind. Had Vettel, Hamilton or Webber been on pole it is difficult to imagine Alonso making a pass but Alonso probably only took pole due to the rain. Alonso looks good for the championship but not yet for regular race victories.

The two most interesting results were Button and Perez. After a run of six terrible races, Button came second after Vettel's penalty and at times looked a contender for victory. There no good reason to believe Button's performance is a one off, so he should be the fifth man in the field contending for victory once again. Perez came an impressive 6th, having started 17th after a five place penalty. Without that penalty he probably would have finished 4th, converting into a podium after Vettel's twenty second penalty and paying off at 32/1 (33.00) from Ladbrokes.

The race was disappointing for Rosberg and Webber but they could have been expected higher up the grid without their gear box penalties. The major disappointment was Grosjean finishing 18th, having never finished below 6th except due to retirement.

Belgium GP race weekend 31st August to 2nd September. Click to see live odds for next race.

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