Fastest Qualifier
Friday, 31 August 2012 by

Fastest Qualifier - Update after German GP 2012

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Qualifying is is difficult to predict compared with the race since all cars start equal unlike the race where you know who is close to the front. Paying attention to the statistics is more important for qualifying than any other bet but usefully the statistics are far clearer for qualifying than other bets.

Four important facts stand out. Red Bull took 87% of poll positions across 2010 and 2011, the majority of which went to Vettel. Hamilton has more polls so far in 2012 than 2010 and 2011 combined. Alonso has only two poll positions in the last two years and both came in the rain. Only three other drivers have taken poll in the last two years, Rosberg, Heidfeld and Schumacher (note that promotion due to penalties are not usually counted by the bookies so Maldonado never took poll in Monoco).

Focus on Hamilton and Vettel, comparing their odds, how they perform in the practice sessions, if the car suits the circuit and how they usually perform on the circuit All of this is discussed in pre-qualifying blog post. Webber often has odds that are worth an outside bet but only on course he usually does well on. Alonso is always worth a bet if it rains during qualifying so follow the weather or use live betting. Mercedes are high odds, high pay off bets but there a substantial chance they will see no more poll positions this season. Beyond this, never bet on any other car for poll.

Some bookies offer betting on top 3 qualifiers and top 10 qualifiers (who reaches Q3 or Qualifying 3). With three 3rd positions and a poll from qualifying, this is a good bet for Schumacher. Webber has been top 3 four times and twice just missed out with a 4th place so this is probably a better bet than poll. For top 10 qualifiers focus on cars who have to fight to make it into Q3 such as William, Sauber and Force India. Maldonado and Hulkenberg have been most successful, both reaching Q3 five times this season.

Read 1635 times Last modified on Wednesday, 13 March 2013 00:47

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