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Saturday, 17 November 2012 by

Race Winner - Update after Abu Dhabi GP 2012

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Race winner is probably the most popular bet but not necessarily the best. Although the odds are usually higher than other bets race, betting on the winner is much more specific, only paying off if the car ends in one specific position unlike bets on podium, top six or top ten. This specificity means that all the relevant factors have far more influence; being confident that a driver will finish in 4th position rather than 5th does not matter when betting on top six but being confident a car will finish 1st rather than 2nd is precisely what betting on race winner is all about. Betting on race winner is much more of a classic gamble than the safer lower odds betting like top 6 or top 10. Some people prefer the gamble, some people prefer safer lower pay off betting but mixing the two is the best.

Generally, most race victories come from 3rd position or higher. Try and get a bet upon each of the top three qualifiers for that race. Aim to break even if one or maybe two of the top 3 drivers wins and then place a higher bet upon which of the top three you think will win or has the best odds. For example, at Silverstone 2012 Alonso was on poll with 2/1 (3.00) for victory, Webber second at 5/1 (6.00) and Schumacher third at 11/1 (12.0). If you put £10 on each then an Alonso win sees you break even, Webber makes you £40 and Schumacher pays off a handsome £120. Details of such bets will be found on the main blog after qualifying. Some courses vary from the norm, with some courses only seeing victories from 1st or 2nd on the grid. Details for specific courses can be found on the stats page. Also, some drivers only win from high qualifying positions whereas other drivers sometimes win from much further down the field. Details from the last decade can be found on the pre-weekend blog post. Finally, some drivers prefer certain tracks and this will be noted in the pre-weekend blog post.

Prior to the qualifying and the practice sessions drivers will have higher odds than after the grid order is known. Taking advantage of this uncertainty is advised in limited quantities. Consider how a driver has performed here before and consider his current form. Also, factor in which courses suit which cars. All this is discussed on the pre-weekend blog post. Placing a small amount of money on a few drivers who the statistics favour or who have unreasonably low odds is wise. If these drivers then qualify badly little money is lost but if one ends up on poll you have money on him at far higher odds than are available after qualifying.

After such an uncertain season Red Bull appear to have finally gained the mechanical advantage they enjoyed in 2010 and 2011. Vettel's current form looks reminiscent of 2011 and arguably is currently stronger. He has never won for races in a row like he did between Singapore and Korea whilst his podium finish from last in Abu Dhabi was extremely impressive. However, this means that Vettel usually has very low odds for victory and so large amounts have to be bet to see a substantial profit.

Webber is unlikely to take any more victories this season. Although looking as strong as Vettel in qualifying, he still has the weaker starts and even were he beating Vettel there is a high chance he would have to move aside and give Vettel the victory. Podium positions or even pole position is wiser for Webber.

Although the McLarens have had two periods when they appeared strongest during the season but currently are generally behind the McLarens. Hamilton was dominant in Abu Dhabi so race victories are not impossible but with such reliability issues generally the McLaren is not worth betting on heavily. Button is generally only worth betting on in wet weather as Hamilton usually is quicker in both qualifying and the race during dry weather conditions.

Alonso has not had a truly competitive car arguably all season. His victories this year have usually come from qualifying high due to the rain or because some competitors crashed out when he qualifies relatively low in the dry. Only bet on Alonso for races where rain is likely though he is certainly one to watch for live betting. He usually has better race pace than his qualifying pace so it is often best to wait until after qualifying to get higher odds.

Although there were other race winners earlier in the season, such outsider victories are very unlikely. The Mercedes has completely lost its pace, Maldonado can sometimes put in an impressive qualifying performance but the Williams can rarely keep up during the race. The Sauber has challenged for victory on some occasions but Perez seems to have currently completely lost his controlled style with numerous racing incidents lately. Even Raikkonen, after his victory is Abu Dhabi, is unlikely to win again. Although he had an extremely strong middle season, except for Abu Dhabi he had never finished higher than 5th in the last six races. Only on warmer circuits than are twisty in the manner similar to street circuits will the Lotus likely be competitive.

Read 1490 times Last modified on Wednesday, 13 March 2013 00:43

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