Red Bull

Sebastian Vettel

Sebastian Vettel
Since 2010
Top 6
Top 10
Last update: Brazil

Season analysis after Korea

After a competitive but not dominate run most this season Vettel has suddenly completely turned the season in its head with three back to back victories. After a season where McLaren were usually the fastest car Red Bull have finally triumphed in the development race. They currently look untouchable, meaning Vettel and Webber are easily the two best bets for race wins. As things stand it looks clear that Vettel has the edge over Webber by a reasonable margin. However, such dominance by Vettel does not necessarily mean he is good value for money as his odds are currently very low. Generally it is best when betting victory to place a bet on Vettel to break even and then place more money on drivers with higher odds, ensuring higher profits with relatively low risk. Also, it is important to note that all of Vettel’s victories have come from first or second on the grid, with the exception of twice winning from third after the leading car retired. When Vettel qualifies in 3rd or below he will still usually have fairly low odds making him terrible value for money and this usually ensures higher odds for other drivers more likely to win.

Vettel is also generally favourite for pole, once again ensuring low odds. Although dominating pole position is likely in the final four races you would probably make more profit on betting on Webber than Vettel each race to take pole assuming that Webber takes only one more pole this season whilst Vettel takes another three.

The most profit for Vettel can be made of podiums, top 6 finishes. Although the Red Bull is not the most reliable car generally when Vettel does finish he finishes above his main competitors like Alonso, Hamilton and Webber. This means that top 6 is a good bet whilst top 10 is not due to reliability issues.

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Season analysis after Hungary

Double world champion Sebastian Vettel was expected to dominate this season but is yet to repeat his success of 2011. Vettel seems equal to Alonso, Hamilton and Webber this year but expectations after last season usually ensure lowers odds than his competitors. With less wins than Alonso ,Hamilton and Webber, with equal pole positions to Hamilton and 43 points behind in the championship, Vettel's substantially lowers odds are not value for money. Vettel has been improving lately by picking up some pole positions and podiums but he needs a string of victories to justify his current odds.

Vettel's strength is qualifying but this is well known so good odds are unlikely. Surprisingly, Vettel has the worst ratio of pole positions to wins in the entire field since 2010. Vettle has a pole to win ratio of 61%, Webber 78% whilst Hamilton, Button and Alonso have more wins in the last three years than pole positions. A pole for Vettel is no guaranteed pay off for victory. Also, Vettel has never won from below starting 3rd place so if Vettel is out of position after qualifying his increased odds will likely not pay off. Suffering from more mechanical failures than his rivals, Vettel is not usually good for low risk low profit bets. With such high expectations that have not been delivered, Vettel is probably the worst driver to bet on except for qualifying.

Vettel is second favourite to win the world championship. However, with Alonso, Hamilton and Webber still strong contenders, any odds below 3/1 (4.00) on Vettel is risky. The championship will probably go down to the last race so betting upon a driver with higher odds is wiser.

This update is out of date, see update from Korea above for current update.

Image © RyanBayona

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