Lewis Hamilton

Lewis Hamilton
Since 2010
Top 6
Top 10
Last update: Brazil

Season analysis after Korea

Hamilton has had a string of difficult races recently, pushing his odds quite high, making him good value for money. Back in Singapore he looked favourite to challenge to challenge Alonso for the championship until a gearbox failure lead to his retirement. Although Red Bull have clearly upped their game Hamilton should not be discounted for another victory in the remaining four races given the dominance McLaren showed between Germany and Singapore. Since Vettel is still looking stronger a good option is to make Hamilton a back up bet for victory when betting on Vettel to win.

Many of McLaren’s recent problems have some from mechanical failure, making qualifying a safer option to bet on. Although Webber is now an important factor, Hamilton is still Vettel’s main challenger for pole position and usually has reasonable odds given Vettel’s dominance in recent qualifying sessions.

Bets for Hamilton to take podiums, top 6 and top 10 are more risky given Hamilton’s aggressive driving style and the reliability difficulties of McLaren. Generally there are better drivers for these categories although on a weekend where McLaren are looking quite strong but still behind Red Bull then Hamilton can be a good bet for a podium.

At this stage Hamilton’s championship chances are completely over unless both Vettel and Alonso have multiple retirements.

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Season analysis after Hungary

Hamilton has been very inconsistent throughout 2012. The McLaren initially looked the fastest car and a dominate season by Hamiton looked likely. Grid penalties China and Spain undid his qualifying performance whilst pitstop errors in Malaysia and Bahrain ruined his race potential. Despite this bad luck, he started the season with three podiums and high potential for wins. Hamilton finally got some incident free races but generally struggled and looked off the pace. The upgrades McLaren brought to Germany have worked well, resulting in victory at Hungary. Despite being so far behind in the championship, Hamilton' improved McLaren should have more victories this season. However, Hamilton usually has fairly low odds, meaning profit will be limited by betting on race victories.

Pole position is probably a superior bet than race winner for Hamilton. He has three pole positions, one disqualified pole and three 2nd places at qualifying this season. This equals Vettel for poles but Hamilton has just missed out many times by coming 2nd. Hamilton looks equal if not stronger than Vettel for pole position yet Hamilton usually has substantially higher,than Vettel for qualifying, making Hamilton to start P1 an excellent bet. However, all these pole positions have come in the dry. The McLaren is currently very weak during wet qualifying.

Hamilton needs two things to realistically win the champion: race wins and consistency. With two victories this season and an improved McLaren, winning is not the problem. Hamilton has always struggled to gain consistent points, usually scoring high or not scoring at all. His competitors like Alonso, Webber, even Vettel and Raikkonen are far more consistent. Hamilton controlled his race well for his win in Hungary, so there are signs he could become more consistent but he has a long way to go.

This update is out of date, see update from Korea above for current update.

Image © Eugene Flores

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