Force India

Fernando Alonso

Fernando Alonso
Alonso
                        2012    
Since 2010
Won
3
9
Pole
2
4
Podium
13
33
Top 6
16
46
Top 10
18
52
Last update: Brazil

Season analysis after Korea

Alonso has looked exceptional this season. He exploits every opportunity and get the maximum possible from his car. As the season starts to close he is still very much on pace, continuing to collect podium finishes. However, his championship lead has finally come to an end but not due to any fault of his own. Rather, this is because of a few retirements caused by other drivers crashing into him and that finally one other driver has moved ahead of others to become Alonso’s sole challenger for the podium.

Race victories are currently looking unlikely. However skilled he might be, luck played a substantial role in some of his early victories. He started 9th in Malaysia and 11th in Valencia: both those wins came after the drivers who qualified higher collided with one another or had mechanical issues. His victory in Germany and 2nd in Silverstone were due to qualifying on pole, something that only occurred due to his skill in the rain. Since Silverstone Alonso has not finished higher than 3rd and has not been on pole meaning race wins are looking unlikely. There is one hope for Alonso. Massa ran an experimental exhaust in Korea and this gave him a substantial advantage in pace. Alonso will use it for India and this might help give him an edge.

Alonso's greatest strength may be consistency. Alonso has reached the podium on average half the races each season since 2010. Any odds above 1/1 (2.00) are probably worth a bet on a podium. Only three times has he not scored points in across 2011 and 2012 and has only not finished top 6 five times. Even on very low odds, betting on finishing in the points or top 6 should pay off long term. Alonso is the best driver for low odds betting.

Alonso could still win the championship but the odds are against it. It is still close enough that if Vettel has another retirement then Alonso might take the trophy. However, having won the last three races it is possible that Vettel could have another retirement and will win the championship if he also have another three victories. Alonso’s main hope lies in the next exhaust that Massa used in Korea. This might leave the Ferrari still slower than the Red Bull but Alonso’s skill or a retirement from Vettel could see Alonso take the championship.

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Season analysis after Hungary

Currently leading the championship, Alonso has looked exceptional this season. He exploits every opportunity and get the maximum possible from his car. However skilled, though, some of his recent success has been due to luck. He started 9th in Malaysia and 11th in Valencia: both those wins came after the drivers who qualified higher collided with one another or had mechanical issues. For Alonso to continue his success he needs to improve his qualifying, having only started top 3 on four occasions this year. The pole positions at Silverstone and Germany were his first in almost two years and were probably due to Alonso's skill in the rain. Whilst the Ferrari has improved since Australia, Alonso admits his car lacks the pace of his competitors.

Unless he qualifies well he is unlikely to win regularly and Alonso seems dependent upon the rain for good qualifying. His relatively low odds for victory are currently not good value for money. Alonso's greatest strength may be consistency. Alonso has reached the podium on average half the races each season since 2010. Any odds above 1/1 (2.00) are probably worth a bet on a podium. Only once has he not scored points in across 2011 and 2012 and has only not finished top 6 three times. Even on very low odds, betting on finishing in the points or top 6 should pay off long term. Alonso is the best driver for low odds betting.

Alonso currently has the lowest odds for the championship. With the second half of 2011 and 2010 going better than the first and being 42 points clear of any competitor, Alonso looks very strong. However, given the luck involved in two of his victories this season, his weak qualifying means the championship is far from guaranteed. Expect the championship to go down to the final race, so Alonso's odds will likely increase as the season progresses. Holding off for those higher odds is advised.

This update is out of date, see update from Korea above for current update.

Image © PresidenBertho

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