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Sunday, 21 April 2013

Bahrain Pre-Race Analysis

Alonso the clear favorite for victory at Bahrain

The bookies have correctly assessed the odds for race winner. Although starting in 3rd, Alonso is in the strongest position, his odds of 2.50 from Bet 365 being a reasonable bet. Rosberg's Mercedes will suffer far higher levels of tire degradation than the Ferrari, forcing him to conserve tires or even make an extra pitstop. Vettel's Red Bull will be strong in the race but the previous races this year suggests Alonso's race pace in the Ferrari is superior. Also, this is a course that the Ferrari typically wins on. Vettel's odds at 3.75 from SkyBet are not terrible and could be worth a small back up bet but focus on Alonso for race winner.

There are two other drivers to watch. Massa starts in 4th on the harder tire. It unclear which tire will be more competitive but Massa should certainly find himself in a strong position as the race progresses. The front runners will pit earlier, giving him clear air to race and choose his moment to pit for fresh tires. Strategically, Massa is in an excellent position in a quick car. His odds of 11.00 from Bet 365 for race winner would be worth betting were it not for the possibility of having to hand the victory over to Alonso. His odds for a podium at 2.83 from Paddy Power is good value for money. Also, Raikkonen starting from 8th may try and emulate Australia, using the superior tire degradation to stop one less time than his rivals. Whilst there is no specific reason to believe he will try this, since he used this plan to win Australia it is a threat and odds of 9.00 from Bet 365 are reasonable. Focusing on Alonso with small back up bets on Massa and Raikkonen is recommended.

The two force India cars start in 5th and 6th. Although looking usually strong, they cannot be recommended for a top 6 finish. Webber and Hamilton only start behind them due to grid penalties and are likely to pass them during the race. Hamilton's odds of a top 6 finish at 2.2 from Bet 365 look like good value, as does Webber's odds for top 6 at 1.72 from Betfair.

Odds above accurate at Saturday 21st, 09.54 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Sunday, 14 April 2013

China Pre-Race Analysis

Tyre choice could decide the race
Qualifying Results
Starting Position
1st
Hamilton
2nd
Raikkonen
3rd
Alonso
4th
Rosberg
5th
Massa
6th
Grosjean
7th
Ricciardo
8th
Button
9th
Vettel
10th
Hulkenberg
11th
di Resta
12th
Perez
13th
Sutil
14th
Maldonado
15th
Vergne
16th
Bottas
17th
Gutierrez
18th
Bianchi
There are a lot of strong competitors at China this year, all with distinct advantages. The Mercedes looks like the quickest, suggesting Hamilton (23/10 (3.30) from Paddy Power) will win. Raikkonen (7/2 (4.50)from Bet 365) is usually very careful with his tyres, the Lotus managed one less pitstop for tyres in Australia and doing so again in China would give him victory. The Ferrari usually has good race pace and Alonso (3/1 (4.00) from SkyBet) usually finishes higher than he starts. Meanwhile, Vettel (11/2 (6.50) from Paddy Power) starts in 9th but on the medium tyres which should give him a substantial advantage. Of these, Vettel has probably the best odds. The front runners will likely pit around lap 6, leaving Button or Vettel in first position. Those front runners will come out in traffic and be held up whilst Vettel has a clear road. Button could ruin his race but the McLaren looks far slower. With so much uncertainty firm predictions are difficult but Vettel looks to have the advantage and has higher odds than his competitors. If placing money on just one driver then Vettel looks like the best odds.

An alternative is betting on multiple drivers. Of all those four strongest for victory, Raikkonen is probably least likely to win because the Lotus looks like it lacks the pace of Ferrari and Mercedes. If betting £10 place £4 on Hamilton to win £13.2, £4 on Alonso to win £16 and £2 on Vettel to win £13, losing £10 is anyone else wins.

Ricciardo's starts a very impressive 7th and has good odds for a top 10 finish at 8/5 (2.50) from Paddy Power. Although likely to be over taken by Vettel, Button and maybe even Hulkenberg, he should still finish around the top 10 on race pace, higher if there are any retirements up front. Meanwhile, Hulkenberg has good odds for a top 6 finish at 589/100 (6.89) Betfair. Starting in 10th on the medium tyre he should have an advantage over those in front of him and is likely to finish well.

Odds above accurate at Sunday 14th, 02.55 GMT. Click to see live odds.