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Sunday, 26 May 2013

Monaco Pre-Race Analysis

Monoco Pre-Race Analysis

Mercedes tire degradation the key factor again

Rosberg takes his third pole position in a row but there is much uncertainty if he can convert it into a win. A front row start is usually required for victory at Monaco but tires in 2013 could render the Mercedes incapable of victory. Rosberg only managed 9th and 6th from his last two pole positions. Monaco will be much more gentle on tire degradation so Rosberg has a much better chance than the previous two races. However, there is very little evidence to suggest either way if the Mercedes can remain competitive throughout the entire race. The strongest evidence is that in free practice Rosberg's long run pace looked better than the previous races, manage a 27 lap run on one set of tires, so victory is not impossible. However, since race victory for Monaco this year depends largely on the unknown variable of Mercedes tire degradation, Rosberg's odds of 2.3 from Paddy Power are not very good value. Hamiltion's odds of 4.3 from SkyBet are not much better, sharing uncertainty over tire degradation and being behind Rosberg.

The Red Bulls look like better value. Whilst the race will likely be decided by how well the Mercedes handles its tires, if Rosberg and Hamilton cannot sustain a good pace then Vettel will be the main beneficiary. Vettel's odds of 4.5 from SkyBet is good value for money. Webber also could be significant. Having won here twice, this is a track he is very competitive at. Whilst Vettel certainly has the upper hand, a small back up bet on his odds of 15.00 from SkyBet might be wise, especially for an accident prone track like Monaco.

Ricciardo usually finishes near the top 10 so is competitive for a points finish from starting in 12th. Given the accident prone nature of Monaco, he will likely finish her than he starts. His odds of 2.62 from Bet 365 are good.

Odds above accurate at Sunday 26rd, 00.52 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Saturday, 25 May 2013

Spanish GP

Due to illness there was no update for the Spanish GP. The race largely conformed to the analysis of the Bahrain GP. The Ferrari looks like the strongest car currently and - discounting instances of terrible luck at Bahrain that affected both Alonso and Massa - we can expect Alonso to challenge for wins much more often than 2012 whilst Massa is likely to get many more podium finishes than 2012.