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Sunday, 30 June 2013

Silverstone Pre-Race Analysis

Hamilton looks strong if his tires hold up

Once again both Mercedes have taken the front row. Usually, this is followed by dropping back heavily during the race. However, lately their tire degradation seems less an issue than normal. Whilst their win in Monaco may have been due to the unique nature of that track, both Mercedes finished only one place lower than they started in Canada. Hamilton's odds of 7/2 (4.50) from SkyBet look good value for money, gambling on the tire degredation of the Mercedes not being so severe. Meanwhile, the Red Bull usually wins at Silverstone and Vettel has looked strong in almost every race this year. His odds of 5/4 (2.25) from Paddy Power are reasonable so betting on both Hamilton and Vettel is recommended. If betting £10, place £5 on Vettel to win £1.25 and £5 on Hamiton to win £12.5 and lose £10 if anyone else wins. Rosberg has looked weaker than Hamilton all throughout qualifying and his 2nd position was considerably slower than Hamilton's, so Hamilton looks the far stronger bet. A possible wildcard is Webber, with odds of 17/2 (9.50) from Bet 365. Webber usually excels at Silverstone but this year he seems much weaker than Vettel. With every Webber victory in his F1 career coming from a front row start, it seems unlikely he could take a 3rd victory at Silverstone.

With Ricciardo and Sutil in 5th and 6th after Di Resta's demotion, Raikkonen and Alonso have almost no chance of victory. Whilst they usually have good race pace, the hope of winning due to superior tire wear requires a much higher temperature than found in a British summer. This makes focusing on Hamilton and Vettel much safer than it usually would be.

Rosberg has odds of 233/100 (3.33) from Bet 365 for a podium finish. Whilst still dependent on having reasonable tire wear, since Webber is prone to weak starts and since there are much slower cars behind them this is a much safer bet than going for victory. Ricciardo has reasonable odds for a top 10 finish at 2/1 (1.50) from SkyBet. He is certainly likely to be passed by Alonso, Raikkonen and probably Grosjean but another three cars would also have pass him to take him out of the top 10.

Finally, SkyBet are offering odds on who will replace Webber next year SkyBet are offering odds on who will replace Webber next year. Whilst Raikkonen certainly is most likely to take the seat, placing a pound or two on Sutil might be worthwhile for a nice outsider odds of 32/1 (33.00).

Odds above accurate at Sunday 30th, 03.55 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Sunday, 9 June 2013

Canada Pre-Race Analysis

Uncertain weather makes this one for live betting

Rain is predicted for Montreal this afternoon reports the BBC, though it is unclear if it will rain directly onto the track. Currently, Vettel looks by far strongest in wet weather conditions. He qualified over half a second quicker in Australia, over a second quicker in Malaysia, quickest in Q2 of Monaco, all of which were in wet conditions. There has yet to be rain in a race so far this year so it is uncertain how to translate Vettel's speed in those sessions for the race today. However, he certainly looks strongest. Also, the problems with tire degradation are usually enhanced with warm weather, so the Ferrari and the Lotus may not have their race pace advantage compared to the Red Bull. Vettel's odds of 91/100 (1.91) from SkyBet are reasonable if it rains though there are so many uncertainties that keeping bets low is recommended.

Hamilton thinks the Mercedes should not have its typical tire degradation problem reports ESPN. Whilst their tire degradation was far better in Monoco than Bahrain and Spain, at Monaco Rosberg was clearly driving very conservatively, suggesting their tire problems are not fully solved.

Alonso was quickest in FP2 during dry conditions and this is a circuit which the BBC''s Gary Anderson thinks suits the Ferrari well with its high speed corners and long straights. Odds of 7/2 (4.50) from Paddy Power are reasonable if it does not rain, though to win from 6th will be quite a result to once again keeping bets low are recommended.

Raikkonen's only hope would be to stop one time less than the others. However, he did this last year and only finished 8th, so he is unlikely to have any chance of victory.

The Force India looks strong this week, Di Resta quickest in FP1 and Sutil second quickest in FP3. Di Resta starts 17th but should move forward. His odds of 5/4 (2.25) from Bet 365 for a points finish are good.

If it rains then bet on Vettel, if it is dry then bet on Alonso. However, since the weather may change as the race progresses, this looks like one for live betting.