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Saturday, 27 July 2013

Hungary Pre-Race Analysis

Lotus look set to challenge for victory

Hamilton starts on pole but can be discounted for victory as his tires will not survive long in the heat of Hungary. Vettel's 2nd has given him extremely low odds for victory at 73/100 (1.73) from SkyBet, which are lower than many times he has started on pole. Whilst looking strong he is unlikely to simply sail away into the distance like he often does. Last year Lotus were extremely quick, finishing 2nd and 3rd whilst pressing Hamilton for victory throughout the race. In Germany they also showed how quick they were in the heat. This year Vettel should have things even worse. The Lotus is even better at tire management than last year, Grosjean starts 3rd compared with 5th in Germany, it should be even warmer than Germany and Grosjean was much closer in qualifying than he was in Germany. Grosjean's odds of 6/1 (7.00) from SkyBet are good value. Raikkonen's odds are similar at 13/2 (7.50) from Paddy Power, despite starting further down. Assuming the Mercedes drop behind then this puts him into 4th, a position from which good tire management could give him victory. Whilst Grosjean has looked stronger than Raikkonen all weekend, given the danger that Grosjean might be forced to move aside to give Raikkonen the victory, betting on both is recommended.

Massa has odds of 11/10 (2.10) from SkyBet for a top six finish which is good value. Starting in 7th in a car good in heat, he has Rosberg and Hamilton in front who should drop quite a few positions, meanwhile in 8th is Riccardo who is unlikely to provide a challenge. Given the difficulties in passing at Hungary Webber and the McLarens are unlikely to pass easily even if they can hold onto to race pace of a Ferrari in hot weather.

Odds above accurate at Sunday 28th, 00.46 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Sunday, 7 July 2013

German Pre-Race Analysis

New tires likely to be just as important as before

The most obvious contenders for victory are Hamilton and Vettel, repeating their battle at Silverstone. The past few races have shown that Mercedes has solved their tire issues. The race pace of the Red Bull and Mercedes currently looks about equal. Since Hamilton is a position ahead and has better odds at 5/2 (3.50) from Paddy Power compared with 5/4 (2.25) for Vettel to win from SkyBet, Hamilton looks better value.

The warm conditions should substantially help Raikkonen and Alonso. Raikkonen might try and stop one less time like he did in his victory in Australia. Even if he can't stop one less time, the warm temperature will make Raikkonen extremely competitive. With much higher odds than the front runners at 9/1 (10.00) from Paddy Power, his odds are excellent value. Meanwhile, Alonso starts tomorrow on the harder of the two tires. The medium tire should allow Alonso to run a much longer first stint which will be a substantial tactical advantage, whereas other front running cars are likely to stop early and come out in traffic. His odds of 10/1 (11.00) from SkyBet are reasonable.

The biggest uncertainty are the new tires. On this basis, the German GP will be more of a gamble than usual. With so much uncertainty, focusing on the higher odds of Raikkonen and Alonso is probably best. Starting in 4th in a car suiting the high temperature, Raikkonen is the recommended bet.

Given how much potential Lotus has, Raikkonen for a podium has good odds at 7/5 (2.40) from Paddy Power whilst Grosjeans odds of 10/1 (11.00) for a podium from SkyBet are excellent.

Odds above accurate at Sunday 7th, 02.01 GMT. Click to see live odds.