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Sunday, 22 September 2013

Singapore Pre-race analysis

Everything favours Vettel

Vettel dominated most of practice and qualifying, on a circuit he has won previously twice. Also, three of the last five victories at Singapore have come from pole position. It also has the shortest run to the first corner and Rosberg is not exceptional at starting races. In any straight fight, Vettel shall win. Betting on anyone else for victory is gambling on mechanical failure of Vettel's car or being caught out by a safety car. Unfortunately, Rosberg's odds of 7/1 (8.00) from SkyBet are too small for this to be a reasonable gamble.

Grosjean's odds of 81/50 (2.62) for a podium finish from Paddy Power are very good value. The Lotus typically does better in the race than qualifying and usually does better on warmer circuits. Starting in 3rd position on a track difficult to pass on, Grosjean looks in a very good position for a podium finish.

Gutierrez has 187/100 (2.87) from Bet 365 for a top 10 finish. Starting in 10th, the only car that should definitely get past him in Raikkonen. If a single car ahead crashes or has a mechanical failure then Guiterrez would be in a reasonable chance for a points finish, making those odds good value.

Odds above accurate at 22nd September, 12.25 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Sunday, 8 September 2013

Italy Pre-Race Analysis

Vettel set for an easy win

Vettel is the clear favorite starting from the front. He dominated practice and qualifying whilst many competitors struggled; the nearest Mercedes or Lotus is five places behind. His main challengers are Ferrari and Webber. Except for mechanical error is it difficult to imagine Webber beating him. Meanwhile, eight of the victories in the last decade at Monza have come from pole position so Alonso would struggle to win from 5th. Vettel's odds of ½ (1.50) from SkyBet are good value for him to win, mainly gambing against the possibility of an engine failure. A small backup bet on Webber to win at 19/2 (10.50) from Betfair might be worthwhile given the high strain Monza puts on the engines and that Vettel's Red Bull seems prone to mechanical errors.

Massa's odds of 4/1 (5.00) for a podium from Bet 365 seem reasonable. Hulkenberg should provide no challenge whilst Alonso will presumably pass Massa, leaving Massa in 4th. Since both Mercedes and Lotus are struggling, Massa is unlikely to fall further back. If Webber makes a bad start or either Red Bull suffers from a mechanical failure then Massa would finish top 3.

Odds above accurate at Sunday 08th, 11.52 GMT. Click to see live odds.