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Ferrari have strongly hinted that they intend to replace Massa for 2013 and many drivers are being considered for his seat. Massa has under-performed since his 2009 accident in Hungary. He is currently 14th in the championship, 139 points down on Alonso. Although Sky Sports report he is not thinking about contracts, Massa being replaced is both likely and sensible.

Ferrari are believed to give Alonso a veto over team mates, ruling out Vettel or Hamilton. Team Principle Stefano Domenicali has stated that Ferrari is only on the market for a number two driver, reports One Stop Strategy. Webber and Button were in talks with Ferrari whilst Raikkonen is rumored, so Ferrari have a loose definition of number two. More realistically, the likely contenders are Hulkenberg, di Resta, Kovalainen, Kobayashi and Perez, reports One Stop Strategy.

The president of Ferrari has stated Perez is too inexperienced, which would also rule out Hulkenberg and di Resta. Kovalainen seems the most likely option, having started F1 two years before Kobayashi. A one year contract would be likely, allowing Ferrari another year to assess Perez, Hulkenberg, di Resta or even a recovered Kubica for a long term contract.

Image © bennovakovic

Alonso takes pole in wet qualifying two races in a row

Qualifying Results
Starting Position
1st
Alonso
2nd
Vettel
3rd
Webber
4th
Schumacher
5th
Hulkenberg
6th
Maldonado
6th
Button
8th
Hamilton
9th
di Resta
10th
Raikkonen
11th
Ricciardo
12th
Perez
13th
Kobayashi
14th
Massa
15th
Grosjean
16th
Senna
17th
Rosberg
18th
Vergne

Saturday saw a very unusual qualifying session, with fastest times in each round being set on a different type of tire. Raikkonen was half a second faster in the dry. Hamilton was second in Q1 and half a second quickest on intermediates in Q2. Unfortunately, the McLaren struggles to get heat into the full wet tires, leaving him in 7th. Alsonso took pole with Vettel in second. This is quite incredible, Alonso went two years without topping qualifying and now took pole twice in a row. This may suggest the Ferrari is improving or could speak of Alonso's skill in the rain.

The big factor is rain. Currently dry weather is predicted. If so, Alonso or Vettel are the only realistic bets, with Hockenheim almost always won from front of the grid. Also, other usual race winners will be held up by Hulkenberg and then have to pass Schumacher, giving the Alonso and Vettel a huge advantage. Vettel may have a number of advantages. At Hockenheim, there is little advantage to starting on either side of the track. Also, one stopping at Hockenheim might be the best strategy, to the disadvantage of Ferrari who struggle with the harder tire. It will be close so live betting might be best. However, with a few advantages and slightly higher odds, Vettel is the better bet. Both drivers have odds of 2.1 (3.00) from StanJames Schumacher would be an outsider bet, usually struggling to keep up with the Red Bull and Ferrari. The Mercedes seems temperamental, such as complete dominance in China and simply falling back from good qualifying in Silverstone. With very high odds of 11/1 (12.00) from 888sport, he might be worth a bet on Hockenheim being a course the Mercedes can deliver pace on.

If it rain then the victory is more open. Alonso seems excellent in the rain so may have an edge over Vettel. Watch Schumacher and Button also, so this may be one for live betting.

Odds above accurate at Sunday 22nd, 00.52 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Image © nic_r

Massa
                        2012    
Since 2010
Won
0
0
Pole
0
0
Podium
2
7
Top 6
9
29
Top 10
14
43
Last update: Brazil

Season analysis after Korea

After a weak season in 2011 and what was initially his worst ever season in 2012, Massa has finally come alive in the last four races. He took his first podium in Japan in almost two years whilst having to hand Alonso the podium in Italy and was disallowed challenging Alonso for the podium in Korea. Had he managed to take three podiums in the last four races he would be as competitive as anyone else in the field. With the Red Bulls so dominant neither Ferrari is likely to win again this season whilst, as Ferrari’s number two driver Massa will likely have to hand over further podium positions to Alonso. This make top 6 finishes the best bet for Massa given that he current looks like he has the pace and the Ferrari’s is perhaps the most mechanically reliable car currently.

Click to see live odds for next race.

 

 

Season analysis after Hungary

Massa has had no podiums, no poll positions and no wins across 2012 and 2011. These are all very high risk bets but Massa rarely has odds as high any anyone else not driving a Ferrari. Someone looking for a high pay off risky bet on a podium should focus upon Sauber or Williams whilst someone looking for a safer bet on a top 6 finish should go with Lotus or Mercedes. Massa is amongst the worst driver to bet upon currently.

His 4th position at Silverstone is his best result since 2010 so Massa is worth watching for future improvements.

This update is out of date, see update from Korea above for current update.

Image © Joseph.Joy.C