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Australia Pre-Qualifying Analysis

Rainstorms possible for qualifying

Free Practice Results
        FP1
FP2
1st
Webber
Raikkonen
2nd
Vettel
Webber
3rd
Vettel
Massa
4th
Alonso
Alonso
5th
Rosberg
Webber
6th
Sutil
Grosjean
7th
Massa
Rosberg
8th
di Resta
di Resta
9th
Hamilton
Hamilton
10th
Grosjean
Sutil
11th
Button
Perez
12th
Maldonado
Button
13th
Perez
Hulkenberg
14th
Hulkenberg
Guiterrez
15th
Gutierrez
Vergne
16th
Bottas
Maldonado
17th
Vergne
Ricciardo
18th
Ricciardo
Bianchi
Thundary showers are expected in qualifying, reports the BBC, making a chaotic qualifying likely. We have limited information about wet weather pace of each car. Last year, Alsono seemed quickest, qualifying 1st in both wet qualifying sessions. His odds of 12/1 (13.00) from Bet 365 look reasonable value for money. Also, Button was the fastest when it rained in FP2. Though it seems very unlikely that such a weak car could take pole, he has very high odds of 50/1 (51.00) from Bet 365. On the off chance his wet weather pace in FP2 was genuine he might be worth putting £1 or £2 on. However, with such little information this early in the season and the unpredictability of the rain, keeping bets low is recommended.

Previous Winners
2012
Alonso
2011
Vettel
2010
Vettel
2009
Button
2008
Raikkonen
2007
Alonso
2006
Fisichella
2005
Alonso
2004
Schumacher
2003
Raikkonen
2002
R Schumacher
There is no clear best bet if qualifying is dry. The top 3 drivers were within a 10th of a second in FP2. Vettel has very low odds of 1/1 (2.00) from Blue Square. After pole in Melbourne he may be the strongest contender though his times in free practice are far from dominant, making such odds are not good value for money. Raikkonen's odds of 5/1 (6.00) from Paddy Power also cannot be recommended because Raikkonen is rarely a strong qualifier. Massa is an interesting option, setting a very competitive time in free practice and usually qualifying higher than Alonso lately. His odds of 25/1 (26.00) from SkyBet may be worth £1 or £2. We should have much more information about the pace of each team for China, so keep bets low until then.

Odds above accurate at 22nd March, 21.28 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Vettel set to win from pole

Qualifying Results
1st
Vettel
2nd
Webber
3rd
Hamilton
4th
Button
5th
Alonso
6th
Massa
7th
Raikkonen
8th
Perez
9th
Maldonado
10th
Rosberg
11th
Grosjean
12th
Hulkenberg
13th
Senna
14th
Schumacher
15th
Ricciardo
16th
di Resta
17th
Kobayashi
18th
Vergne
Vettel adds another pole position to the record and looks likely collect another win also. His odds are extremely low at 2/5 (1.40) from SkyBet. Although Vettel is most likely to win, betting on other drivers is advised given how little profit can be made from Vettel. Webber has odds of 7/1 (8.00) from Blue Square despite being only a 50th of a second slower than Vettel. If Webber can get a reasonable start then he should be a factor and with such high odds is worth a small bet.

Although Vettel looks to have the advantage, the top 6 cars are separated by only half a second so the fight for the podium should be extremely competitive. Hamilton has odds of 1/1 (2.00) whilst Button and Alonso both have odds of 13/10 (2.30) for the podium, all from Paddy Power. With the pace so similar it probably is a fight between Hamilton who is the highest up of those three drivers and with Alonso who usually finishes higher than he finishes. There is little to choose between them but with higher odds and more reliability Alonso is better value for money. Perez starts in 8th in a car which usually finishes further up than it qualifies so 3/2 (2.50) for a top 6 finish from Bet 365 is highly recommended. Finally, odds of 2/1 (3.00) for Senna to score points from Blue Square are reasonable given how strong he looked during parts of free practice and Q1.

Odds above accurate at Friday 27th, 20:04 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Image © nhayashida

Vettel continues his dominance in India

Free Practice Results
        FP1
FP2
1st
Vettel
Vettel
2nd
Button
Webber
3rd
Alonso
Alonso
4th
Hamilton
Rosberg
5th
Webber
Raikkonen
6th
Rosberg
Hamilton
7th
Massa
Button
8th
Schumacher
Hulkenberg
9th
Ricciardo
Grosjean
10th
Raikkonen
Senna
11th
Bottas
di Resta
12th
di Resta
Perez
13th
Kobayashi
Schumacher
14th
Hulkenberg
Ricciardo
15th
Grosjean
Massa
16th
Maldonado
Kobayashi
17th
Vergne
Maldonado
18th
Petrov
Vergne
F1 returns for the second India GP and for the second year running Red Bull look like the team to beat. Vettel heads both free practice sessions, Webber was second in FP2 and the Red Bull has clearly been the fastest car for some races now. The main chance of upsetting this trend could have been Alonso using the experimental exhaust that Massa put to good use in Korea. The Ferrari is clearly extremely competitive with Alonso finishing 3rd in both free practice sessions but it doesn’t look like he has the pace to challenge the Red Bulls.

Vettel is the firm favourite in the battle for pole and his extremely low odds of 2/5 (1.40) from Betfair reflect this. By contrast, Webber has 5/1 (6.00) from Paddy Power for pole which is incredibly good value for money. Vettel has only had one pole position in the last eight races, exactly the same number as pole positions that Webber has taken. This is only the third race since the Red Bull became the dominant car and both Red Bull drivers have each taken the 1st place slot on the grid in those two races. Also, Webber was only a 10th behind Vettel in FP2. Although arguably Vettel does have superior pace a small better on Webber for pole is worthwhile since he has such high odds. Although Alonso looks too weak for pole he appears to have the edge over the McLarens, finishing 3 tenths ahead of Hamilton in FP2. Odds of 1/1(2.00) for Alonso to qualify top 3 from Betfair is a good bet.

Rosberg was running strong in both free practice sessions and may have a successful race after some disappointing recent performances. Odds of 9/2 (5.50) for a top 6 finish from Blue Square and 1/1 (2.00) for a points finish from Bet 365 are both good value given that the Mercedes suits the long straights in India. Also, although Alonso probably has the edge, Hamilton’s odds of 7/5 (2.40) from Blue Square for a podium are very high for such a competitive car.

Odds above accurate at Friday 26th, 23:15 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Image © iCena

Rain washes out FP1 and FP2
Free Practice Results
FP3
1st
Alonso
2nd
Raikkonen
3rd
Perez
4th
Kobayash
5th
Button
6th
Massa
7th
Webber
8th
Grosjean
9th
Vettel
10th
di Resta
11th
Maldonado
12th
Hamilton
13th
Schumacher
14th
Hulkenberg
15th
Vergn
16th
Ricciardo
17th
Senna
18th
Kovalainen
19th
Pic
20th
Glock
21nd
Petrov
22nd
de la Rosa
23rd
Karthikeyan
24th
Rosberg
With FP1 and FP2 completely washed out with torrential rain the only meaningful information for the rest of the weekend came from free practice three. The session was quite unusual with the two favourites for poll setting low times. Neither Vettel's 9th or Hamilton's 12th look particularly competitive. Their odds are 31/10 (4.10) from Betfair and 18/5 (4.60) from Betfair respectively and these do not look like value for money. With the Red Bull usually doing well Vettel is the better bet but looking elsewhere is advised.

Alonso and Raikkoen came 1st and 2nd. Alonso has odds of 7/1 (8.00) from Blue Square but he not taken poll in two years except for in the wet. Raikkonen has odds of 8/1 (9.00) from Bet 365 but he has not qualified higher than 4th this season. These two bets look like better value for money than Hamilton or Vettel but at this stage there is little reason to favour any of these four to take pole. With so much uncertainty, it might be advised to avoid qualifying bets and save money for the race when the grid order is known.

The major surprise is the two Saubers, Perez coming 3rd and Kobayashi coming 4th. Betting on poll would be extremely ambitious but this pace suggests they will qualify better than normal and do well in the race. This is in line with the trend of the Sauber preferring high speed courses and cold weather. Perez for a podium at 14/1 (15.00) from SkyBet looks like good value for money after his podiums in Malaysia and Canada. Also recommended are Perez finishing top 6 at 11/4 (3.75) from Bet 365 and Kobayashi top 6 at 3/1 (4.00) from Bet 365.

There are two important developments. Lotus will not run their new double DRS reports ESPN whilst Webber has a five place grid penalty after a gear box change reports ESPN.

Odds above accurate at Saturday 1st, 11.55 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Image © nic_r

Placed Gained (+) or Lost (-) from Grid Position in 2012 Races

Australia
Malaysia
China
Bahrain
Spainish
Monoco
Canada
Valencia
British
Germany
Hamilton
-2
-2
-1
-6
+1
-1
+1
DNF
None
DNF
Button
+1
-12
+4
-14
+2
-3
-6
+1
+8
+5
Vettel
+4
-5
+6
None
+2
+6
-3
DNF
+1
None
Webber
-1
None
+3
-1
+1
+1
-3
+15
+1
-5
Alonso
+7
+8
None
+2
+1
+3
-2
+10
-1
None
Massa
DNF
-3
-1
+5
-2
+1
-4
-3
+1
+2
Raikkonen
+11
None
-9
+9
+2
-1
+4
+3
+1
+6
Grosjean
DNF
DNF
+4
+4
None
DNF
+5
DNF
+4
-3
Schumacher
DNF
-7
DNF
+8
DNF
DNF
DNF
+9
-4
-3
Rosberg
-5
-6
None
None
None
+1
-1
None
-2
+7
Perez
+9
+8
-3
-3
DNF
+13
+12
+6
DNF
+7
Kobayashi
+7
DNF
-6
-1
+5
DNF
+2
DNF
+1
+8
Di Resta
+5
+7
+3
+4
-1
+8
-3
+3
DNF
-2
Hulkenberg
DNF
+5
+1
+1
+4
+3
+1
+3
-3
-7
Senna
-2
+7
+7
-7
DNF
+4
-1
+4
+6
-11
Maldonado
-5
-8
+6
DNF
None
DNF
+4
+1
-9
+1
Hungary
Belgium
Italy
Singapore
Japan
Korea
India
Abu Dhabi
USA
Brazil
Hamilton
None
DNF
None
DNF
+4
-7
-1
DNF
+1
DNF
Button
-2
None
DNF
+2
-1
DNF
-1
+1
+7
+1
Vettel
-1
+10
DNF
+2
None
+1
None
+21
-1
-2
Webber
+3
+6
DNF
-4
DNF
-1
-1
DNF
DNF
-1
Alonso
+1
DNF
None
+2
DNF
+1
+3
+3
+6
+6
Massa
-2
+9
-1
+5
+9
+2
None
None
+3
+2
Raikkonen
+3
None
+3
+6
+2
None
None
+3
Grosjean
-1
DNF
DSQ
+1
DNF
None
+2
DNF
-3
DNF
Schumacher
DNF
+6
-1
DNF
+2
-3
DNF
+1
-10
+7
Rosberg
+3
+7
None
+5
DNF
DNF
-1
DNF
+4
-5
Perez
None
DNF
+11
-6
DNF
+1
DNF
-5
+4
DNF
Kobayashi
-3
DNF
None
+5
+1
DNF
+3
+8
+2
+6
Di Resta
None
None
-4
+2
None
-2
+4
+2
-2
-8
Hulkenberg
+1
+8
DNF
+3
+3
+2
+4
DNF
None
+2
Senna
+1
-5
+4
DNF
+4
+3
+3
+5
+1
DNF
Maldonado
-4
DNF
+1
DNF
+6
+1
-5
-2
+1
DNF

 

Qualifying position for race wins since 2010

Vettel
Qualifying position
Number of times
1st
16
2nd
3
3rd
2

Webber
Qualifying position
Number of times
1st
3
2nd
4

Hamilton
Qualifying position
Number of times
1st
3
2nd
6
3rd
1

Button
Qualifying position
Number of times
1st
1
2nd
3
3rd
1
4th
1
5th
2

Alonso
Qualifying position
Number of times
1st
3
2nd
1
3rd
3
9th
1
11th
1

Only three other drivers have won in the last three seasons. Rosberg and Maldonado, took their victory from pole whilst Raikkonen won from 4th.

 

Number and percentage of times qualifying position yields win since 2010

Qualifying position
Number of victories
Percent of victories
1st
26
44%
2nd
17
29%
3rd
7
12%
4th
3
5%
5th
3
5%

Alonso's wins from 9th and 11th form 1% each of the total wins.

 

Race Results 2012

Australia
Malaysia
China
Bahrain
Spainish
Monoco
Canada
Valencia
British
Germany
Hamilton
3rd
3rd
3rd
8th
8th
5th
1st
Ret
8th
Ret
Button
1st
14th
2nd
18th
9th
16th
16th
8th
10th
2nd
Vettel
2nd
11th
5th
1st
6th
4th
4th
DNF
3rd
2nd
Webber
4th
4th
4th
4th
11th
1st
7th
4th
1st
8th
Alonso
5th
1st
9th
7th
2nd
3rd
5th
1st
2nd
1st
Massa
DNF
15th
13th
9th
15th
6th
10th
16th
4th
12th
Raikkonen
7th
5th
14th
2nd
3rd
9th
8th
2nd
5th
4th
Grosjean
DNF
DNF
6th
3rd
4th
DNF
2nd
DNF
6th
18th
Schumacher
DNF
10th
DNF
10th
DNF
DNF
DNF
3rd
7th
7th
Rosberg
12th
13th
1st
5th
7th
2nd
6th
6th
15th
10th
Perez
8th
2nd
11th
11th
DNF
11th
3rd
9th
DNF
5th
Kobayashi
6th
DNF
10th
13th
5th
DNF
9th
DNF
11th
5th
Di Resta
10th
7th
12th
6th
14th
7th
11th
7th
DNF
11th
Hulkenberg
DNF
9th
15th
12th
10th
8th
12th
5th
12th
12th
Senna
16th
6th
7th
22nd
DNF
10th
17th
10th
9th
17th
Maldonado
13th
19th
8th
DNF
1st
DNF
13th
12th
16th
15th
Hungary
Belgium
Italy
Singapore
Japan
Korea
India
Abu Dhabi
USA
Brazil
Hamilton
1st
DNF
1st
DNF
5th
10th
4th
DNF
1st
Ret
Button
6th
1st
DNF
2nd
4th
DNF
5th
4th
5th
1st
Vettel
4th
2nd
DNF
1st
1st
1st
1st
3rd
2nd
6th
Webber
8th
6th
DNF
11th
DNF
2nd
3rd
DNF
Ret
4th
Alonso
5th
DNF
3rd
3rd
DNF
3rd
2nd
2nd
3rd
2nd
Massa
9th
5th
4th
8th
2nd
4th
6th
7th
4th
3rd
Raikkonen
2nd
3rd
5th
6th
6th
5th
7th
1st
6th
10th
Grosjean
3rd
DNF
DSQ
7th
DNF
7th
9th
DNF
7th
Ret
Schumacher
DNF
7th
6th
DNF
11th
13th
DNF
11th
16th
7th
Rosberg
10th
11th
7th
5th
DNF
DNF
11th
DNF
13th
15th
Perez
14th
DNF
2nd
10th
DNF
11th
DNF
15th
11th
Ret
Kobayashi
18th
DNF
9th
13th
3rd
DNF
14th
6th
14th
9th
Di Resta
12th
10th
8th
4th
12th
12th
12th
9th
15th
19th
Hulkenberg
11th
4th
DNF
14th
7th
6th
8th
DNF
8th
5th
Senna
7th
12th
10th
DNF
14th
15th
10th
8th
10th
Ret
Maldonado
13th
DNF
11th
DNF
8th
14th
16th
5th
9th
Ret

 

Qualifying Results 2012

Australia
Malaysia
China
Bahrain
Spainish
Monoco
Canada
Valencia
British
Germany
Hamilton
DNF
1st
2nd
2nd
1st
4th
2nd
2nd
8th
8th
Button
2nd
2nd
6th
4th
11th
13th
10th
9th
18th
7th
Vettel
6th
6th
11th
1st
8th
10th
1st
1st
4th
2nd
Webber
5th
4th
7th
3rd
12th
2nd
4th
19th
2st
3rd
Alonso
12th
9th
9th
9th
3rd
6th
3rd
11th
1st
1st
Massa
16th
12th
12th
14th
17th
7th
6th
13th
5th
14th
Raikkonen
18th
5th
5th
11th
5th
8th
12th
5th
6th
10th
Grosjean
3rd
7th
10th
7th
4th
5th
7th
4th
10th
15th
Schumacher
4th
3rd
3rd
18th
9th
1st
9th
12th
3rd
4th
Rosberg
7th
7th
1st
5th
7th
3rd
5th
6th
13th
17th
Perez
17th
10th
8th
8th
6th
24th
15th
15th
17th
12th
Kobayashi
13th
17th
4th
12th
10th
12th
11th
7th
12th
13th
Di Resta
15th
14th
15th
10th
13th
15th
8th
10th
11th
9th
Hulkenberg
9th
16th
16th
13th
14th
11th
13th
8th
9th
5th
Senna
14th
13th
13th
15nd
18th
14th
16th
14th
15th
6th
Maldonado
8th
11th
14th
17th
2nd
9th
17th
13th
7th
16h
Hungary
Belgium
Italy
Singapore
Japan
Korea
India
Abu Dhabi
USA
Brazil
Hamilton
1st
8th
1st
1st
9th
3rd
3rd
1st
2nd
1st
Button
4th
1st
2nd
4th
3rd
11th
4th
5th
12th
2nd
Vettel
3rd
11th
6th
3rd
1st
2nd
1st
24th
1st
4th
Webber
11th
7th
11th
7th
2nd
1st
2nd
2nd
3rd
3rd
Alonso
6th
6th
10th
5th
7th
4th
5th
5th
9th
8th
Massa
7th
14th
3rd
13th
11th
6th
6th
7th
7th
5th
Raikkonen
5th
4th
8th
12th
8th
5th
7th
4th
5th
9th
Grosjean
2nd
9th
DSQ
8th
5th
7th
11th
8th
4th
18th
Schumacher
17th
13th
5th
9th
13th
10th
14th
12th
6th
14th
Rosberg
13th
18th
7th
10th
15th
9th
10th
6th
17th
10th
Perez
14th
5th
13th
14th
6th
12th
8th
10th
15th
13th
Kobayashi
15th
2nd
9th
18th
4th
13th
17th
14th
16th
15th
Di Resta
12th
10th
4th
6th
12th
14th
16th
11th
13th
11th
Hulkenberg
10th
12th
DNQ
11th
10th
8th
12th
9th
8th
7th
Senna
8th
17th
14th
17th
18th
18th
13th
13th
11th
12th
Maldonado
9th
3rd
12th
2nd
14th
15th
9th
3rd
10th
6th

Hamilton completely dominated qualifying at the Hungaroring.

Qualifying Results
Starting Position
1st
Hamilton
2nd
Grosjean
3rd
Vettel
4th
Button
5th
Raikkonen
6th
Alonso
6th
Massa
8th
Maldonado
9th
Senna
10th
Hulkenberg
11th
Webber
12th
di Resta
13th
Rosberg
14th
Perez
15th
Kobayashi
16th
Vergne
17th
Schumacher
18th
Ricciardo
Hamilton looks by far strongest for victory and the odds reflect this at 91/100 (1.91) from 888sport. He was quickest in each session of qualifying and twice in free practice. Only two things might unsettle Hamilton. Hungary is a difficult course to pass on and Grosjean is often quick on the start. Also, light rain is predicted, with Hamilton good but not strongest in the rain.

With the race victories at Hungary coming from anywhere in the top four, Button is a strong contender if the rain is heavy. 11/1 (12.00) from Bet 365 are good odds. Button looks good for an outside bet.

Vettel has unusually high odds at 9/2 (5.50) from 888sport. However, he looks to lack the pace of Hamilton, the track is difficult to pass on and Vettel is not especially strong in the rain. However, any driver with those odds are reasonable value for money from 3rd place and especially so for Vettel.

The big unknown is Grosjean. Generally, he finishes higher than he qualifies yet his best finishing position is only 3rd. However, he seems slow in the rain in his few wet races so far and the Lotus usually only becomes competitive in the second half of the race. Grosjean is currently 15/2 (8.50) from Bet 365 but is one for live betting.

Image © nic_r

Odds above accurate at Saturday 28th, 14.40 GMT. Click to see live odds.