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Sunday, 24 November 2013

Brazil Pre-Race Analysis

Rain best hope breaking Vettel's serious of victories

As usual, Vettel is the clear favourite to win, with odds of 33/100 (1.33) from Paddy Power. However, rain is currently predicted throughout the race according to BBC Weather. Vettel's car is clearly the quickest but the chaos and confusion of a wet race makes his low odds far too risky.

Whilst his competitors will still struggle to beat Vettel, the high odds of all other drivers makes them far better value given the opportunities opened by a wet race. Rosberg's odds of 52/5 (11.4) from Betfair are very attractive after coming first in both FP1 and FP2 (whilst not running in FP3). Also, the rain will mean track temperatures will be relatively cool, meaning the Mercedes should have better tire degradation than it often has. Meanwhile, Alonso's odds of 9/1 (10.0) from SkyBet are also very nice. Last year the Ferrari was typically the quickest car in the rain (although the lack of wet races this year leaves its performance this year uncertain) and he actually believes he could have gone quicker in qualifying, reports ESPN. Alonso is the master of opportunity, taking advantage of situations rain can supply. Betting on both Rosberg and Alonso to win is quite probably the best approach, accepting the loss if Vettel wins but making a considerable profit if either Rosberg or Alonso take victory, far from an impossibility given how competitive they look.

Rosberg also has good odds for a podium at 11/10 (2.10) from Bet 365. Looking strong in free practise and avoiding the Mercedes main weakness of high tire degradation means he should be very competitive.

Odds above accurate at Sunday 24th, 9.45 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Sunday, 17 November 2013

USA Pre-Race Analysis

Diverse grid could lead to an interesting race

There are few promising bets this year. Vettel is almost certain to win and has correspondingly low odds. Vettel and Webber will almost certain finish on the podium and so also have correspondingly low odds. The final podium position is a fight between Grosjean and Hamilton and both drivers have a particular advantage. The Lotus prefers warm weather and so should do well in Texas. However, the tire degradation is very slight and most teams will be one stopping. Consequently, the weak tire degradation of the Mercedes should not be such an issue. Hamilton should be more competitive than usual and odds of 2/1 (3.00) from SkyBet are reasonable but hardly exceptional.

Perez has reasonable odds for a top 6 finish at 209/100 (3.09) from Betfair. The only quicker car immediately behind him is Kovalainen in the Lotus who might not be fully competitive due to lack of recent experience. With Perez starting in 7th he only has to hold of Kovalainen and either pass Hulkenburg or have a leading car mechanically fail for the bet to come off. Once again, reasonable but not exceptional odds.

Since there are so few promising bets currently it might be worth considering live betting. In qualifying various drivers had difficult switching on their tires. If this also happens in the race then some unexpected results may occurs and money could be made from live betting.

Odds above accurate at Sunday 17th, 16.22 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Sunday, 3 November 2013

Abu Dhabi Pre-Race Analysis

Red Bulls in a straight fight

Once again Webber has a chance to beat Vettel. He had similar chances in Japan and India and lost out. In Abu Dhabi Webber should have two advantages in his favour. Firstly, the run to the first corner is short so he will have to be even worse than usual at starting to not lead the first lap. Secondly, passing is very difficult so Vettel will have to be creative to get past. On this basis, his odds of 157/50 (4.14) for victory from Betfair looks like good value. However, no matter what is thrown at Vettel he always seems to win. Vettel's odds of 31/50 (1.62) from SkyBet are reasonable but can hardly be recommended given that Webber has some factors in his favour. Logic says Webber has the advantage but it would take bravery to bet against Vettel currently.

Grosjean may be strong to challenge for a podium. He qualified 6th despite gear box issues whilst Raikonnen qualified an usually high 4th until his penalty. The Lotus did well here last year, with Raikonnen winning and the warm weather typically helps the Lotus and hinders the Mercedes. With a high speed and ability to stay out longer before pitting for tyres, Grosjean should have a good chance of passing the Mercedes. Grosjean's odds of 9/5 (2.80) from Paddy Power are not brilliant but they are the best odds of any driver for a podium finish.

Odds above accurate at Sunday 3rd, 00.02 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Saturday, 26 October 2013

India Pre-Race Analysis

Tyre choice looking crucial

The soft tyre at India this years looks to far less durability than a typical race. There are some fears it will not even last a full lap before starting to lose speed. It is very likely that all those starting on the soft tire will have to pit within five to ten laps. This means Vettel, Rosberg, Hamilton, Massa, Raikkonen, and Hulkenburg will all pit early, probably putting them behind at least Webber, Alonso, Perez and Button.

Beyond mechanical problems only the Red Bull's are competitive for victory, being about 0.7 of a second quicker on either tyre. This puts Webber in a good position to win. After his first stop, Vettel will be slowed down as he then passes Alonso and the two McLarens. By contrast, Webber first pit stop will come much later when the field has spread out, meaning he will probably come out in clear air. Every lap Vettel spends getting past another car will cost him around 0.7 second, so unless he clears them quickly Webber should be able to put a considerable lead on him. It should still be a close fight but Webber's odds of 389/100 (4.89) from Betfair are very good value compared to Vettel's odds of 9/25 (1.36) from Paddy Power.

Under the same logic, Alonso is well placed for a podium, especially since he was quickest behind the Red Bull's in third practise. However, his odds are not brilliant at 5/4 (2.25) from SkyBet. They are better than his competitors but ultimately there is still great uncertainty over how long the tyres will last. Meanwhile, if those starting on the soft tyre are turn out not to be at a huge disadvantage, then many cars are looking competitive for that third podium position, so betting else where is recommended.

Without being able to estimate how long the soft tyre will last, there is much uncertainty over this race. Whilst Alonso has the edge over his rivals for a podium, his odds are not great enough to be worth a gamble. By contrast, Webber and Vettel are both equally well placed or perhaps Webber has the advantage and in this case Webber has far higher odds than Vettel. However, caution must be recommended given the uncertainty over the tyres.

Odds above accurate at Saturday 26th, 22.46 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Sunday, 13 October 2013

Japan Pre-Race Analysis

Vettel strongest even from 2nd position

Despite being out qualified by Webber for the first time this season, Vettel is still the favourite at Suzuka this year. Given that Vettel has won the Japanese GP three times before, having been quicker consistently than Webber all year and with Webber relatively weak at race starts, Vettel clearly has the advantage. Perhaps the main danger Vettel faces is a recurrence of the Kers failure during the race. On this basis, his odds of 61/100 (1.61) from SkyBet are too low to be good value. Webber's odds of 9/4 (3.25) from Paddy Power are better but are still not great value for money. Ultimately, there is too much uncertainty over how bad Webber's start will be and how well Vettel's Kers unit will cope so betting elsewhere is advised.

SkyBet and Grosjean's odds of 3/2 (2.50) from Bet 365 for podium finishes are both good value. Starting in 3rd and 4th respectively, they are immediately followed by Massa, Rosberg and Hulkenberg, all of whom are unlikely to pass them. You are therefore gambling against Alonso or Raikkonen being able make up so many places. Whilst both Alonso and Raikkonen are very skilled at making good use of the circumstances, their recent success at ending up on the podium despite starting quite low is partially dependent upon luck – such as the safety car at Korea assisting Raikkonen greatly. The fight between Hamilton and Grosjean will be very interesting but after the Mercedes has failed to take a podium in the last three races whilst have taken three podiums between their drivers in the last three races, Grosjean should have the advantage.

Odds above accurate at Sunday 13th, 01.10 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Saturday, 5 October 2013

Korea Pre-Race Analysis

Rain could result in a chaotic race

As usual Vettel is favoured for victory but he faces a greater challenge than usual. His pole time was only two tenths quicker than Hamilton whilst both Vettel and Hamilton looked about equal in free practise. Whilst Vettel should be favourite in a straight race, his odds of 11/25 (1.44) from SkyBet are far too low. Crucially, rain is currently predicted. Whilst typhoon conditions are now unlikely, some rain should still occur during the race. Given the unpredictability this will bring Vettel should definitely be avoided. Hamilton's odds of 4/1 (5.00) from Bet 365 are much better. He has a chance in a dry race but largely you are hoping Hamilton can take advantage of the changing conditions. The odds are good even though you are gambling upon the random factor of weather though live betting is an alternative if you get up early enough. Greater winnings could be had by counting on a chaotic race and going for Alonso, Rosberg or Grosjean for victory though all three would be true gamble. Of those three, Grosjean has the highest odds at 31/1 (32.00) from Betfair whilst he starts in 3rd and the Lotus usually does well at warmer circuits – he might be worth putting a couple of pounds on.

Grosjean's odds for a top six finish of 1/2 (1.50) from Bet 365 are reasonable. Starting 3rd, the only drivers likely to have any chance of passing him are Rosberg, Alonso, Raikkonen and Webber. Grosjean would have to have a very weak race to be passed by Webber who starts in 13th so a top 6 finish is likely.

Odds above accurate at Sunday 6th, 00.11 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Sunday, 22 September 2013

Singapore Pre-race analysis

Everything favours Vettel

Vettel dominated most of practice and qualifying, on a circuit he has won previously twice. Also, three of the last five victories at Singapore have come from pole position. It also has the shortest run to the first corner and Rosberg is not exceptional at starting races. In any straight fight, Vettel shall win. Betting on anyone else for victory is gambling on mechanical failure of Vettel's car or being caught out by a safety car. Unfortunately, Rosberg's odds of 7/1 (8.00) from SkyBet are too small for this to be a reasonable gamble.

Grosjean's odds of 81/50 (2.62) for a podium finish from Paddy Power are very good value. The Lotus typically does better in the race than qualifying and usually does better on warmer circuits. Starting in 3rd position on a track difficult to pass on, Grosjean looks in a very good position for a podium finish.

Gutierrez has 187/100 (2.87) from Bet 365 for a top 10 finish. Starting in 10th, the only car that should definitely get past him in Raikkonen. If a single car ahead crashes or has a mechanical failure then Guiterrez would be in a reasonable chance for a points finish, making those odds good value.

Odds above accurate at 22nd September, 12.25 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Sunday, 8 September 2013

Italy Pre-Race Analysis

Vettel set for an easy win

Vettel is the clear favorite starting from the front. He dominated practice and qualifying whilst many competitors struggled; the nearest Mercedes or Lotus is five places behind. His main challengers are Ferrari and Webber. Except for mechanical error is it difficult to imagine Webber beating him. Meanwhile, eight of the victories in the last decade at Monza have come from pole position so Alonso would struggle to win from 5th. Vettel's odds of ½ (1.50) from SkyBet are good value for him to win, mainly gambing against the possibility of an engine failure. A small backup bet on Webber to win at 19/2 (10.50) from Betfair might be worthwhile given the high strain Monza puts on the engines and that Vettel's Red Bull seems prone to mechanical errors.

Massa's odds of 4/1 (5.00) for a podium from Bet 365 seem reasonable. Hulkenberg should provide no challenge whilst Alonso will presumably pass Massa, leaving Massa in 4th. Since both Mercedes and Lotus are struggling, Massa is unlikely to fall further back. If Webber makes a bad start or either Red Bull suffers from a mechanical failure then Massa would finish top 3.

Odds above accurate at Sunday 08th, 11.52 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Sunday, 25 August 2013

Belgium Pre-Race Analysis

Rain likely throughout race

Vettel is the current favourite at 8/5 (2.60) from Paddy Power. Hamilton, by contrast, seems better value at 9/4 (3.25) from SkyBet. The pace of the Red Bull and the Mercedes seems about equal, however, Hamilton starts in front and the Mercedes has won three of the last five races whereas Vettel has only won two of the last five. Given his higher odds there seems little reason not to favour Hamilton.

However, with rain expected thoughout the race according to the BBC, there is little chance of this being a simple fight between Hamilton and Vettel. Raikkonen and Alonso both have odds of 12/1 (13.00) from Paddy Power starting from 8th and 9th respectively. Predicting how they could win is almost impossible given the uncertainty of the wet race. Watching them for live betting is recommended instead. Button for a podium position would also be worth watching for live betting.

Odds above accurate at Sunday 25th, 10.30 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Saturday, 27 July 2013

Hungary Pre-Race Analysis

Lotus look set to challenge for victory

Hamilton starts on pole but can be discounted for victory as his tires will not survive long in the heat of Hungary. Vettel's 2nd has given him extremely low odds for victory at 73/100 (1.73) from SkyBet, which are lower than many times he has started on pole. Whilst looking strong he is unlikely to simply sail away into the distance like he often does. Last year Lotus were extremely quick, finishing 2nd and 3rd whilst pressing Hamilton for victory throughout the race. In Germany they also showed how quick they were in the heat. This year Vettel should have things even worse. The Lotus is even better at tire management than last year, Grosjean starts 3rd compared with 5th in Germany, it should be even warmer than Germany and Grosjean was much closer in qualifying than he was in Germany. Grosjean's odds of 6/1 (7.00) from SkyBet are good value. Raikkonen's odds are similar at 13/2 (7.50) from Paddy Power, despite starting further down. Assuming the Mercedes drop behind then this puts him into 4th, a position from which good tire management could give him victory. Whilst Grosjean has looked stronger than Raikkonen all weekend, given the danger that Grosjean might be forced to move aside to give Raikkonen the victory, betting on both is recommended.

Massa has odds of 11/10 (2.10) from SkyBet for a top six finish which is good value. Starting in 7th in a car good in heat, he has Rosberg and Hamilton in front who should drop quite a few positions, meanwhile in 8th is Riccardo who is unlikely to provide a challenge. Given the difficulties in passing at Hungary Webber and the McLarens are unlikely to pass easily even if they can hold onto to race pace of a Ferrari in hot weather.

Odds above accurate at Sunday 28th, 00.46 GMT. Click to see live odds.

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