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Latest F1 Betting News

Thursday, 6 September 2012

Italy Pre-Weekend Analysis

The 13th Race of 2012, Italian Grand Prix at Monza.

Previous Winners
2011
Vettel
2010
Alonso
2009
Barrichello
2008
Vettel
2007
Alonso
2006
Schumacher
2005
Raikkonen
2004
Barrichello
2003
Schumacher
2002
Barrichello
2001
Montoya
Formula 1 returns to one of the classic race courses, a track which has been standard on the calendar ever since the inception of F1. Hopefully Monza will also be far more standard than the last race. With perfectly warm weather and no rain predicted (see F1 Weather for details) there should be a whole weekend of running. Also, the first corner of the Italian GP sees far fewer accidents than at Spa.

The key to Monza, more than most other tracks, is pole position. The Italian GP is arguably one of the simpler race courses and so there is less reason for the fastest driver and fastest car not to take pole position and the win. Over the past few years none of the top teams have had a vast advantage, with Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari performing roughly equally well here. The pace of the Lotus is unknown. They are not using their double DRS reports Sky Sports but could still be a threat since they usually perform best on warmer tracks. The favourite is Hamilton with odds of 3/1 (4.00) from Paddy Power. Having never won here and only reached the podium once in five races at Monza these are not particularly promising odds. Button, Alonso, Vettel and Raikkonen all have odds between 5/1 (6.00) and 6/1 (7.00) from Betfair. These are better odds than Hamilton's but there is currently little to choose between them. The Mercedes usually run well here, liking the high speed straights of Monza. Given their recent weak performances victory would be a true gamble. Podiums are probably unlikely but top 6 at 9/4 (3.25) from Blue Square for both drivers is good value for money.

Grid position of race winner since 2001
Grid Position
Number of times
1st
7
4th
2
5th
1
The high speeds of Monza puts the most mechanical strain on the cars than any other circuit so reliability is a factor. With modern F1 cars so reliable this is not too much of a concern but works slightly in favour of Ferrari and against Red Bull, Lotus and Mercedes. However, it is worth noting that Webber changed his gear box in Belgium and hopefully will not be plagued by this problem again. He has the highest odds for a top 6 finish of all the top drivers at 67/100 (1.67) from SkyBet and this looks good value for money given his new gear box.

With seven of the last ten race wins coming from pole there is a useful alternative strategy. Rather than betting on both qualifying and race winner, affectively combine the bets by just betting on race winner. Pick who you think will take pole and bet on them to win the race, taking advantage of the far higher odds for race winner available before qualifying. However, the current pace of the teams is difficult to judge. The upgrades from the summer have not yet revealed their potential after the rain drenched Belgium practice meant set up was guess work. How they will run in a normal race is very much unknown. Waiting for free practice one and free practice two is advised although with this uncertainty ideally wait for free practice three also.

Odds above accurate at Wednesday 5th, 23.43 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Image © marco_ask

Wednesday, 5 September 2012

Betting Offers

 

Paddy Power

Paddy's a generous man

 

Paddy Power offers a very attractive introductory deal for anyone willing to regularly place large amounts of money (£50+) on a single bet. Place down a bet and they will give you another free bet of the same value, up to £50. Place another 4 bets down and you'll receive another free bet equal to the average amount you bet across those 4 bets, up to £50. After this, you get a free bet every time you make 5 bets, the value of the free betting being average of those 5 bets and no greater than £50. The process is continues until you have had 5 free bets. If you are willing to put £50 on each bet you'll eventually have had £250 in free bets. These free bets expire after 30 days.

Paddy Power covers all the main F1 bets, the championships, race win, poll, podium, top 6 and top 10. Bets like if there will be safety car or how many cars will finish are covered by Paddy Power. The website also covers many different sports than F1.

         
 

Bet 365

Matching you for £200

Bet365 has an excellent introductory deal if you plan to bet heavily. However much you originally deposit Bet365 will match, up until £200. However, before you can withdraw your free bet earnings you must rollover your deposit and its matched total 3 times. This basically means that you must have bet £1200 to claim your the winnings from your free £200. If you originally deposit less then you need to bet far less to claim your winnings from the free bet. For example, if you deposit £50 originally you only must bet £300 to claim the earnings from your £50 free bet. This rollover requirement must be met within 90 days and is available to customers from the UK or Ireland.

The website covers all the main F1 bets and many other sports. The odds can be displayed as decimal, fractional or American at the click of a button. The Website is especially good for the iPhone since no apps are required.

         
skybet.com  

Literally, a free bet!

Unlike most most 'free bets', Sky Bet offers a genuine rarity, a free bet that requires no deposit. Although only £5 this alone is worth the short sign up process. Deposit £5 and you'll then get an additional £5 free bet deposited.

SkyBet offers much more than all the main F1 bets. Alongside a full range of sports, the website has links to Sky Poker, which does internet poker and the online casino called Sky Vegas. The website can display fractional or decimal odds and includes an online betting calculator. SkyBet has many other unique advantages, including occasional free bets and Sky TV discounts as part of loyalty offers.

         
 

Blue Square

£25 matched bet with no strings attached

Blue Square offer a very simple deal, bet £25 and they match it with deposit of £25. You can withdraw the winnings straight away so no further betting is required.

They cover all the main F1 bets and many other sport. They also have online games and slot machines. Website can display odds as fractional, decimal or American and has a bet calculator.

         
 

The best odds and a £25 no risk bet

Betfair offer a risk free first bet. If your bet loses then Betfair will refund the loss of your first bet up to £25, depositing however much you lost into your account.

Betfair covers more F1 bets than most other bookies with all the main bets and many more unique ones like betting on quickest in the practise sessions. They cover many other sports and have poker, casino and slot machines.

The main appeal of Betfair is that they have a betting exchange alongside standard betting. Users can place whatever odds they wish in the betting exchange and other users choose if to match those odds. Alongside betting on a driver to win, users can bet against drivers by making a lay bet. A successful lay bet pays off when someone else makes a bet which is unsuccessful. However much you put down on the lay bet you make in profit. However, if their bet is successful then you get however much laid down back but you then lose however much you bet multiplied by the lay odds. For example, imagine Hamilton had 2.5 (in decimal) to win and you laid £10 against him. You make £10 if he does not win but lose £15 if he does win.

The Betfair betting exchange quite often has the best odds available of than other websites. However, Betfair take 5% of profit from a market though this can be reduced through regular betting. Also, how much you can bet on the betting exchange is limited by how much


Reaction and fallout after the crash at Spa continues. Grosjean hit Hamilton and collected between them Alonso, Perez and Kobayashi. Grosjean has been given a one race ban and will miss Monza, reports Sky Sports.

Sunday, 2 September 2012

Belgium Post-Race Analysis

Massive crash but Button needed no help to win

Race Results
1st
Button
2nd
Vettel
3rd
Raikkonen
4th
Hulkenberg
5th
Massa
6th
Webber
7th
Schumacher
8th
Vergne
9th
Ricciardo
10th
di Resta
11th
Rosberg
12th
Senna
13th
Kobayashi
14th
Petrov
15th
Glock
16th
Pic
17th
Kovalainen
18th
de la Rosa

After such a weak season Button notches up another victory. Although he faced far fewer competitors than normal his pace was incredible and no one could touch him. With quickest times in free practice and in the qualifying sessions, his weekend was more dominant than Hamilton's in Hungary. However, it's difficult to know if Button has genuinely stepped up his game or if he just got the set-up on his McLaren perfect. Regardless, he certainly looks likely to be more of a factor than than he has been mostly this season.

The big upset was Grosjean's crash taking out Hamilton, Alonso, Kobayashi and Perez. Whilst none of these could have challenged Button it would have been extremely interesting to see if they could have matched Raikkonen for pace. Especially disappointing is Sauber not getting a chance to show their potential. Although Kobayashi was slow during the race he probably suffered damage during the crash and they are worth watching for the future as more podiums are likely this season. Vettel and Hulkenberg also had very impressive races, Vettel using his one stop strategy to move ahead of even Raikkonen from 11th and Hulkenberg took his Force India to 4th.

After Alonso's first retirement this year his competitors had a chance to keep up. Button's win moves him closer to putting himself into the hunt for the championship but he is still far away. With Hamilton also retiring and Webber not having a great race Alonso has got off lightly in the championship race. Raikkonen is now a single point behind Webber and 14 in front of Hamilton. Alonso's main concern is Vettel, now 8 points ahead of his team mate and 24 behind Alonso. The margin is still big but Alonso now has an even harder fight on his hands.

Monza race weekend 7th to 9th of September. Click to see live odds for next race.

Image © Evoflash

Sunday, 2 September 2012

Belgium Pre-Race Analysis

A very unusual qualifying session.
Qualifying Results
Starting Position
1st
Button
2nd
Kobyashi
3rd
Maldonado*
4th
Raikkonen
5th
Perez
6th
Alonso
6th
Webber*
8th
Hamilton
9th
Grosjean
10th
di Resta
11th
Vettel
12th
Hulkenberg
13th
Schumacher
14th
Massa
15th
Vergne
16th
Ricciardo
17th
Senna
18th
Rosberg
*Maldonado – 3 place penalty.
*Webber – 5 place penalty.

Button takes his first poll position in two years during one of t strangest qualifying results in the last few seasons. Both Saubers achieved their best qualifying position with Kobayashi 2nd and Perez 5th. Raikkonen also had best qualifying of the year by coming in 4th. Maldonado's excellent 3rd was demoted to 6th after blocking a car in the pitlane (see Planet F1), promoting Raikkonen, Perez and Alonso.

There is no obvious reason why so many drivers who are relatively weak at qualifying have taken substantially higher grid positions than the Red Bulls or Hamilton. Since it is unclear why this happened it is also unclear if those who qualified well will be able to retain pace during the race. Caution is heavily advised for betting on Spa this year.

Jenson Button is the favourite to win with odds of 7/5 (2.40) from Paddy Power. The McLaren generally does not suit Spa that well and there is speculation that Button was so much quicker than Hamilton because his car was set up for qualifying so these odds are not brilliant. Raikkonen is second favourite with 7/2 (4.50) from Bet 365. Raikkonen almost always does better in the race than qualifying, the Lotus having arguably the best race pace of any car in the field. Having won here four times, Raikkonen has an excellent chance of taking a fifth victory at Spa from 3rd on the grid. 7/2 (4.50) is good odds though also placing a equally sized bet on Button would ensure a profit whichever wins would be wise.

The big uncertainty are Sauber. They usually do well in high speed tracks in colder weather which puts them at home in Belgium. In the correct conditions the Sauber often show massive race pace and can often finish far ahead of where they qualify, Perez taking podiums from 10th and 15th on the grid. If Spa is one of the courses that maximises their potential pace – and qualifying suggests that it is – then a win cannot be discounted. 113/10 (14.3) from Betfair for Kobayashi and 83/5 (17.60) from Betfair for Perez are both worth at least a small bet. If victory sounds ambitious then podiums at 57/25 (3.28) from Betfair for Kobayashi and 7/2 (4.50) from SkyBet for Perez seem good value given that the Saubers usually finishing higher than they qualify. The Saubers may split their strategy, with Kobayashi covering the leaders whilst Perez tries his own strategy which he has so masterfully pulled of in the past so hopefully at least one Sauber will find the best strategy and take the podium. Top 6 are also good odds at 67/100 (1.67) from Blue Square for Kobayashi and 1/1 (2.00) from Blue Square for Perez.

The best strategy would be betting on all the top four for victory, trying to break even on a Button victory and profit for the other four. As a rough approximate example, betting £30 with £12 on Button, £14 on Raikkonen, £3 on Kobayashi and £2 on Perez would yield £1 profit if Button wins, £14 if Raikkonen wins, £12 if Kobayashi wins and £10 if Perez wins. The major challenge to this plan is Alonso in 5th. Maldonado should hold up many of the pack who lacked pace in qualifying and additionally di Resta might hold up Vettel in 11th and a demoted Webber in 12th (see ESPN.). Alonso's relentless nature is renowned but his win's at Malyasia and Valencia were dependent upon a car higher up the field having a slow pit stop or retiring . Since Alonso free admits his car is weaker than the Lotus and the McLaren it is difficult to imagine him taking victory without luck coming his way (see ESPN). Overall though, with so many uncertainties after such a bizarre qualifying it is very difficult to guess what race pace each car will approximately have so live betting or simply avoiding betting on Spa this year might ultimately prove wisest.

Odds above accurate at Saturday 2nd, 01.02 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Image © samarvid

Saturday, 1 September 2012

Belgium Pre-Qualifying Analysis

Rain washes out FP1 and FP2
Free Practice Results
FP3
1st
Alonso
2nd
Raikkonen
3rd
Perez
4th
Kobayash
5th
Button
6th
Massa
7th
Webber
8th
Grosjean
9th
Vettel
10th
di Resta
11th
Maldonado
12th
Hamilton
13th
Schumacher
14th
Hulkenberg
15th
Vergn
16th
Ricciardo
17th
Senna
18th
Kovalainen
19th
Pic
20th
Glock
21nd
Petrov
22nd
de la Rosa
23rd
Karthikeyan
24th
Rosberg
With FP1 and FP2 completely washed out with torrential rain the only meaningful information for the rest of the weekend came from free practice three. The session was quite unusual with the two favourites for poll setting low times. Neither Vettel's 9th or Hamilton's 12th look particularly competitive. Their odds are 31/10 (4.10) from Betfair and 18/5 (4.60) from Betfair respectively and these do not look like value for money. With the Red Bull usually doing well Vettel is the better bet but looking elsewhere is advised.

Alonso and Raikkoen came 1st and 2nd. Alonso has odds of 7/1 (8.00) from Blue Square but he not taken poll in two years except for in the wet. Raikkonen has odds of 8/1 (9.00) from Bet 365 but he has not qualified higher than 4th this season. These two bets look like better value for money than Hamilton or Vettel but at this stage there is little reason to favour any of these four to take pole. With so much uncertainty, it might be advised to avoid qualifying bets and save money for the race when the grid order is known.

The major surprise is the two Saubers, Perez coming 3rd and Kobayashi coming 4th. Betting on poll would be extremely ambitious but this pace suggests they will qualify better than normal and do well in the race. This is in line with the trend of the Sauber preferring high speed courses and cold weather. Perez for a podium at 14/1 (15.00) from SkyBet looks like good value for money after his podiums in Malaysia and Canada. Also recommended are Perez finishing top 6 at 11/4 (3.75) from Bet 365 and Kobayashi top 6 at 3/1 (4.00) from Bet 365.

There are two important developments. Lotus will not run their new double DRS reports ESPN whilst Webber has a five place grid penalty after a gear box change reports ESPN.

Odds above accurate at Saturday 1st, 11.55 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Image © nic_r

Saturday, 1 September 2012

Belgium Pre-Qualifying Analysis (2)

Very heavy rain meant neither practice session revealed any useful information, especially since dry weather is predicted for the rain and the race. The pre-qualifying blog entry will be delayed until a full update will can be posted after free practice three when more information will hopefully be revealed.

There are two important developments. Lotus are unlikely to run their new double DRS reports ESPN whilst Webber has a five place grid penalty after a gear box change reports ESPN.

Saturday, 1 September 2012

Fastest Lap

Fastest lap is only worth betting on during live betting. Since the cars do not refuel midrace they speed up as the cars burn up fuel and become lighter. This means that the fastest lap is only likely to occur in the last final five or ten laps. By this point the grid is usually fairly settled and the fastest drivers are in a strong position. They are usually not taking risks rather than pushing the car to the limits. The fastest drivers are not likely to set the fastest lap, meaning fastest lap rarely goes to the fastest car.

The bet is only good for live betting. Opportunities may arise as the race begins to end. Look for competitive drivers who are closing on another car and will catch them before the end of the race. If the driver tries to challenge for position then both drivers will start pushing and the lap times will come down, potentially to fastest lap levels. Beyond situation on the track like this, betting on fastest lap is a true gamble and will be very difficult to see a profit on without substantial luck.

2012 has seen substantially more diverse race results than 2011 or 2010. During those two years, Hamilton, Button, Vettel, Webber and Alonso took all the victories and 89% of the podium places. This year, Mercedes and Williams have won races whilst Lotus and Sauber have reached the podium and could have taken a victory.

Despite this, five drivers have broken away as realistic contenders for the championship. Alonso is leading the championship and is the current favourite. Many consider him the current greatest driver, this may be true but it is questionable if he has the car to take the world championship this year. Alonso's win in Malaysia was due to Hamilton's unlucky slow pitstop whilst Alonso would not have won Valencia without Vettel retiring from mechanical issues. Without that luck, Alonso would currently be around 3rd in the championship. His win in Germany was well deserved but there is little reason to believe he would have won without poll position. That was only the second time in two years he started from P1 on the grid, the other being the previous race at Silverstone and both were reliant for on rain for poll.

It is very difficult not to imagine the other drivers slowly catching Alonso as the season progresses, the only question is if he has built enough of a lead to take the world championship. Since the championship will probably go down to the last few races, the chances are Alonso's odds will increase as other drivers catch him. Waiting for his current odds of Betfair to increase is advised.

Although Alonso is between 40 and 50 points ahead of Hamilton, Webber, Vettel and Raikkonen it is possible for any of them to catch up. If any one of those drivers won the next two races whilst Alonso finishes no higher than 8th then they'd be slightly above, equal or just behind Alonso. Alternatively, if Webber or Vettel finished an average of 5 points ahead for the remaining 9 races they would take the championship. The same is true if Hamilton or Raikkonen finished an average of 6 points ahead of Alonso. Alonso taking the championship is far from assured.

The major obstacle to anyone overtaking Alonso is that so many drivers are competing for that top spot. Vettel, Webber, Alonso and Raikkonen keep taking points from one another and even one driver does rises above the others it is extremely difficult to determine which will.

A few races into 2012 and Hamilton had a couple of pole positions, good race performance and looked favourite for the championship. Mistakes in the pit lane and unlucky penalties cost him race victories but it looked as though if Hamilton could have a few incident free races he'd probably be leading the championship. Unfortunately, Hamilton then did not matched that early performance, with only one (disqualified) pole position and one no podiums beyond his win in the seven races prior to Germany. The upgrade package introduced in Germany helped him take to true dominance at Hungary with victory, fastest in all three qualifying sessions and two of the three practice sessions. With so many poll positions this season and such strong race pace Hamilton has an equal chance of taking the championship as Vettel but considerably higher odds at 6.5 from Betfair.

There is very little between both Red Bull drivers currently. Vettel has more poll positions but Webber has more wins and more championship points. Both drivers have improved since the first three races, Vettel found his skill at setting pole laps again whilst Webber has stopped consistently coming 4th and instead won races. Being so evenly matched currently, both drivers will likely go into the final races of the year neck and neck. Neither driver has an edge over the other but Webber has odds nearly four times as high at 16.00 from Betfair. compared to Vettel at 4.23 from Betfair. A bet on Webber for world champion is by far better value for money. Webber has lookes far stronger than his odds suggest. He won Monoco, had a DRS failure at Valencia when the Red Bull otherwise looked very strong, won Silverstone, gear box change meant a grid penalty at Germany, team error meant he missed Q3 in Hungary when he was quickest in free practice 3 then penalty at Belgium from another gear box change. His recent spate of bad results is due to back luck so is not an indication of poor potential. 16.00 is excellent value for money.

The big outsider is Raikkonen. After two year of McLaren, Red Bull and Ferrari competing for the championship another team is mounting a challenge. Raikkonen looked good at the start of the season and has recently had a series of strong performances, finishing top 5 including two podiums in all the last four races. Having been so close to a win this season, a race victory this year looks likely fairly likely. However, there is good reason to believe the odds are against Raikkonen taking the championship. The Lotus performs well on warmer circuits so has had an advantage over the summer that will fade as the autumn sets in. Also, Raikkonen has only had one incident this year, failing to make Q2 in Australia. Beyond this Raikkonen has avoided more than his share of misfortune of mechanical errors or race incidents (though some would argue that avoiding problems on the track is due to Raikkonen's careful driving). If the Lotus slows down on the colder tracks and if Raikkonen starts having some bad luck then odds of 11.00 from Betfair is not good value for money.

The best odds are currently Hamilton and Webber whilst waiting for Alonso's odds to increase is also worthwhile.

Friday, 31 August 2012

What type of odds do you use?

The odds are displayed in fractional and then in decimal in brackets. See Odds Converter for a full explanation.