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Latest F1 Betting News

Highly debatable but 2010 is arguably when modern F1 took its current form. Red Bull went from being a good car to the best, Alonso joined Ferrari, Button joined McLaren, Rosberg and Schumacher joined Mercedes, Massa lost his form, Toyota left, new teams joined. 2011 could have been picked due to the regulation changes or 2009 because Red Bull first became a factor. 2010 seemed most relevant to the current F1 environment and for judging future performance based on past performance.
The higher the odds the greater the pay off. Any driver described as having too low odds is one to avoid whilst any driver with high odds but a reasonable possibility of success is usually worth a bet. See Odds Converter for a full explanation.

This late in the season the constructors championship is probably not worth betting on. Red Bull have a 54 point advantage after Hungary and no other team is likely to catch up. It is not far from the realms of possibility, that if Lotus or McLaren could score an average of 7 points higher than Red Bull every remaining race they would take the trophy. However, Red Bull would either have to drop the pace they've had for the last two and a half year or suffer from a series of accidents or mechanical errors. Whilst Red Bull look extremely good there's always a risk when you put money down for such little reward so this bet cannot be advised either.

Top 10 can be a difficult bet to make money on. Generally the odds for top 10 are less value for money than other bets. Money can be made from low risk low odds betting but long term the risks are high because even the best cars occasionally retire. The two drivers with the best results are 45 points finishes in 49 races for both Webber and Alonso whilst Raikkonen has scored points in all races this year bar one, so even odds of 1.15 are reasonable value for money. Vettel, Hamilton and Button usually face too many reliability issues or driver errors to see a pay off from long term top 10 bets.

There are many better bets for many of drivers further down the field as some either finish far higher than 10th or do not finish at all. Grosjean has finished every race this season in 6th or above or below 10th.. One of Maldonado's two points finishes was also a win whilst two of Perez's were podiums and the other a top 6. Better money can be made on other bets than top 10 for these drivers.

Focus on Senna, Koybashi, Di Resta and Hulkenberg but only if the odds are better than 2.0. Earlier in the season di Resta was best for points finishes but recently Hulkenberg and Senna have been better, with Hulkenberg twice finishing top 10 in the last four races and Senna three times.

Podiums are much easier to pick than a race but the low odds reflect this, making this a difficult bet to make money on. It can be a good best if two cars both look equally good for victory, more money might be made an betting on both for a podium than both for race winner. However, with Lotus challenging for podiums regularly there are currently seven cars who realistically can regularly reach the podium, meaning only bet on odds above 2.50 for these drivers. This makes podiums impossible for low risk, low pay off betting.

Podiums can sometimes be good for drivers who statically does well but have struggled in recent races so are being undervalued. Going from a bad phase to race winner is sometimes ambitious so betting on an undervalued podium finish is wiser.

Try and focus on teams who probably will not win but can realistically finish well. Until halfway through 2012 Lotus were especially good bets for podiums, finishing top 3 far higher than their odds would have indicated. However, they now look like regular challengers for victory so their odds for a podium are fairly low. Mercedes are worth watching. They have only taken three podiums this year but probably deserved another at Monoco whilst Schumacher has qualified top 3 or top 4 five times only to retire from bad luck. However, the team usually does better in qualifying than the race so only bet on a podium if they qualify top 3 and back it up with a top 6 bet in case they lose positions during the race. Perez is the main driver to watch for high odds podium bets, having three times made the podium this season and could have in Germany except for a grid penalty and mechanical issues in the race. With odds usually above 15.00 for a podium much money can be made through his skill at preserving the tires.

Qualifying is is difficult to predict compared with the race since all cars start equal unlike the race where you know who is close to the front. Paying attention to the statistics is more important for qualifying than any other bet but usefully the statistics are far clearer for qualifying than other bets.

Four important facts stand out. Red Bull took 87% of poll positions across 2010 and 2011, the majority of which went to Vettel. Hamilton has more polls so far in 2012 than 2010 and 2011 combined. Alonso has only two poll positions in the last two years and both came in the rain. Only three other drivers have taken poll in the last two years, Rosberg, Heidfeld and Schumacher (note that promotion due to penalties are not usually counted by the bookies so Maldonado never took poll in Monoco).

Focus on Hamilton and Vettel, comparing their odds, how they perform in the practice sessions, if the car suits the circuit and how they usually perform on the circuit All of this is discussed in pre-qualifying blog post. Webber often has odds that are worth an outside bet but only on course he usually does well on. Alonso is always worth a bet if it rains during qualifying so follow the weather or use live betting. Mercedes are high odds, high pay off bets but there a substantial chance they will see no more poll positions this season. Beyond this, never bet on any other car for poll.

Some bookies offer betting on top 3 qualifiers and top 10 qualifiers (who reaches Q3 or Qualifying 3). With three 3rd positions and a poll from qualifying, this is a good bet for Schumacher. Webber has been top 3 four times and twice just missed out with a 4th place so this is probably a better bet than poll. For top 10 qualifiers focus on cars who have to fight to make it into Q3 such as William, Sauber and Force India. Maldonado and Hulkenberg have been most successful, both reaching Q3 five times this season.

Race winner is probably the most popular bet but not necessarily the best. Although the odds are usually higher than other bets race, betting on the winner is much more specific, only paying off if the car ends in one specific position unlike bets on podium, top six or top ten. This specificity means that all the relevant factors have far more influence; being confident that a driver will finish in 4th position rather than 5th does not matter when betting on top six but being confident a car will finish 1st rather than 2nd is precisely what betting on race winner is all about. Betting on race winner is much more of a classic gamble than the safer lower odds betting like top 6 or top 10. Some people prefer the gamble, some people prefer safer lower pay off betting but mixing the two is the best.

Generally, most race victories come from 3rd position or higher. Try and get a bet upon each of the top three qualifiers for that race. Aim to break even if one or maybe two of the top 3 drivers wins and then place a higher bet upon which of the top three you think will win or has the best odds. For example, at Silverstone 2012 Alonso was on poll with 2/1 (3.00) for victory, Webber second at 5/1 (6.00) and Schumacher third at 11/1 (12.0). If you put £10 on each then an Alonso win sees you break even, Webber makes you £40 and Schumacher pays off a handsome £120. Details of such bets will be found on the main blog after qualifying. Some courses vary from the norm, with some courses only seeing victories from 1st or 2nd on the grid. Details for specific courses can be found on the stats page. Also, some drivers only win from high qualifying positions whereas other drivers sometimes win from much further down the field. Details from the last decade can be found on the pre-weekend blog post. Finally, some drivers prefer certain tracks and this will be noted in the pre-weekend blog post.

Prior to the qualifying and the practice sessions drivers will have higher odds than after the grid order is known. Taking advantage of this uncertainty is advised in limited quantities. Consider how a driver has performed here before and consider his current form. Also, factor in which courses suit which cars. All this is discussed on the pre-weekend blog post. Placing a small amount of money on a few drivers who the statistics favour or who have unreasonably low odds is wise. If these drivers then qualify badly little money is lost but if one ends up on poll you have money on him at far higher odds than are available after qualifying.

Red Bull have usually been strongest for victory in the previous few years. By contrast, this year after Hungary, Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari have three victories each. Despite this Red Bull are still arguably the most powerful overall team. There reliability is only beaten by Ferrari, they make fewer pit stop errors than most top teams, they are considerably quicker than Ferrari and perform better in the rain than McLaren. However, victory is far from certain and they are only a good bet if qualifying well, Vettel having never won from below 3rd and Webber from below 2nd on the grid. Hamilton is only marginally weaker overall but on any course suiting the McLaren Hamilton is a better bet than the Red Bulls. Alonso is the driver out performing his car, leading the world championship with a car slower than the McLaren, the Red Bull and maybe even the Lotus. His victories this year have usually come from qualifying high due to the rain or because some competitors crashed out when he qualifies relatively low in the dry. Only bet on Alonso for races where rain is likely though he is certainly one to watch for live betting.

Neither Lotus has won yet but with plenty of podiums a victory this season is likely. Their major problem is weak qualifying as they have arguably the best race pace of the field. Their odds often decrease after qualifying because of this though really they need to qualify at least top four for victory to be anything but a high odds bet. Their strong race speed makes them ones to watch for live betting. For Mercedes, Rosberg has won once this season and Schumacher has qualifying top 4 in over half the races this season. Another victory might be possible but after a series of weak results over the summer only bet on victory if they qualify top 3. However, since they usually do better in qualifying than the race it might be best watching them for live betting to see if they can retain the pace rather than betting heavily on them even after qualifying well. Perez has looked very impressive at times this season, two podiums and potentially a victory in Malaysia. However, he is too much an outsider for victory currently but is one to watch for live betting. Maldonado won in Spain but since then failed to score a single point. Despite very high odds he is not worth betting on for victory unless he qualifies top three.

Friday, 31 August 2012

Belgium Pre-Weekend Analysis

The 12th Race of 2012, Belgium Grand Prix at Spa.

Previous Winners
2011
Vettel
2010
Hamiltonv
2009
Raikkonen
2008
Massa
2007
Raikkonen
2006
Not Held
2005
Raikkonen
2004
Raikkonen
2003
Not Held
2002
Schumacher
2001
Schumacher
After the long summer break Formula One returns to arguably the greatest track on the calendar. Belgium may prove very different to the recent races this season. After a series of warm tracks during the summer, Belgium will probably be the coldest track so far this season, substantially affecting some teams. Rain is not current forecast for qualifying or the race but Spa is renowned for unpredictable weather changes that develops suddenly. Also, coming back from the break many cars will have substantial upgrades that could shift the balance of power.

The high speed corners of Spa suit the Red Bull best. They managed 1st and 2nd position in 2011 and could have done similar in 2010 except for a few mistakes. Webber was on pole, dropped to 6th after after a terrible start but eventually finished 2nd whilst Vettel was running well until accidentally hitting Button. Vettel is second favourite for victory at 4/1 (5.0) from Skybet and 21/20 (2.05) for a podium from Betfair. These are good odds for a track suiting the Red Bull. Webber's odds of 133/10 (14.3) for victory from Betfair and 11/4 (3.75) for a podium from Paddy Power are excellent value for money on a track he finished 2nd on for the last two years. Top 6 for Webber at 18/25 (1.72) from Bet365 are also good odds.

Hamilton is favourite for victory after his impressive pace at Hungary and on a course he has won before. However, although he is likely be in the hunt for victory, with so many strong competitors 3/1 (4.0) from Skybet is not vastly good value for money. Button faces a paradox at this year Belgium GP: Button's excels in changing weather conditions likes those typical of Spa but the McLaren is currently extremely weak in the rain so Button is unlikely to win in either dry or wet conditions.

Belgium is arguably one of Alonso's weaker tracks, having never won Spa. However, this season Alonso has truly shown his skill in the rain, taking pole on both wet qualifying sessions this season. 41/5 (9.2) from Betfair is good if rain occurs so Alonso is one to watch for Saturday live betting.

The big unknown are Lotus who have unusually low odds. They were exceptional in Hungary, Spa will be their first race with their new Double DRS and Raikkonen has won here every single time he has finished the race. However, Lotus seem to suit the warmest courses best. Both drivers got podiums in Bahrain and Hungary, Raikkoen took the podium in Spain and Valencia whilst Grosjean just missed out with a 4th in Spain and was 2nd in Valencia when he suffered from a mechanical failure. Spa may be the coldest track this year, a likely maximum 20 degrees (see F1 Weather for details) compared to 46 in Hungary. Unless the new Double DRS is exceptionally powerful victory looks unlikely, a podium is much safer but waiting until pace of Lotus is revealed in the practice sessions and qualifying is advised.

Odds above accurate at Friday 31st, 12.43 GMT. Click to see live odds.

Image © TiM_BiG

Thursday, 30 August 2012

Statistics

Placed Gained (+) or Lost (-) from Grid Position in 2012 Races

Australia
Malaysia
China
Bahrain
Spainish
Monoco
Canada
Valencia
British
Germany
Hamilton
-2
-2
-1
-6
+1
-1
+1
DNF
None
DNF
Button
+1
-12
+4
-14
+2
-3
-6
+1
+8
+5
Vettel
+4
-5
+6
None
+2
+6
-3
DNF
+1
None
Webber
-1
None
+3
-1
+1
+1
-3
+15
+1
-5
Alonso
+7
+8
None
+2
+1
+3
-2
+10
-1
None
Massa
DNF
-3
-1
+5
-2
+1
-4
-3
+1
+2
Raikkonen
+11
None
-9
+9
+2
-1
+4
+3
+1
+6
Grosjean
DNF
DNF
+4
+4
None
DNF
+5
DNF
+4
-3
Schumacher
DNF
-7
DNF
+8
DNF
DNF
DNF
+9
-4
-3
Rosberg
-5
-6
None
None
None
+1
-1
None
-2
+7
Perez
+9
+8
-3
-3
DNF
+13
+12
+6
DNF
+7
Kobayashi
+7
DNF
-6
-1
+5
DNF
+2
DNF
+1
+8
Di Resta
+5
+7
+3
+4
-1
+8
-3
+3
DNF
-2
Hulkenberg
DNF
+5
+1
+1
+4
+3
+1
+3
-3
-7
Senna
-2
+7
+7
-7
DNF
+4
-1
+4
+6
-11
Maldonado
-5
-8
+6
DNF
None
DNF
+4
+1
-9
+1
Hungary
Belgium
Italy
Singapore
Japan
Korea
India
Abu Dhabi
USA
Brazil
Hamilton
None
DNF
None
DNF
+4
-7
-1
DNF
+1
DNF
Button
-2
None
DNF
+2
-1
DNF
-1
+1
+7
+1
Vettel
-1
+10
DNF
+2
None
+1
None
+21
-1
-2
Webber
+3
+6
DNF
-4
DNF
-1
-1
DNF
DNF
-1
Alonso
+1
DNF
None
+2
DNF
+1
+3
+3
+6
+6
Massa
-2
+9
-1
+5
+9
+2
None
None
+3
+2
Raikkonen
+3
None
+3
+6
+2
None
None
+3
Grosjean
-1
DNF
DSQ
+1
DNF
None
+2
DNF
-3
DNF
Schumacher
DNF
+6
-1
DNF
+2
-3
DNF
+1
-10
+7
Rosberg
+3
+7
None
+5
DNF
DNF
-1
DNF
+4
-5
Perez
None
DNF
+11
-6
DNF
+1
DNF
-5
+4
DNF
Kobayashi
-3
DNF
None
+5
+1
DNF
+3
+8
+2
+6
Di Resta
None
None
-4
+2
None
-2
+4
+2
-2
-8
Hulkenberg
+1
+8
DNF
+3
+3
+2
+4
DNF
None
+2
Senna
+1
-5
+4
DNF
+4
+3
+3
+5
+1
DNF
Maldonado
-4
DNF
+1
DNF
+6
+1
-5
-2
+1
DNF

 

Qualifying position for race wins since 2010

Vettel
Qualifying position
Number of times
1st
16
2nd
3
3rd
2

Webber
Qualifying position
Number of times
1st
3
2nd
4

Hamilton
Qualifying position
Number of times
1st
3
2nd
6
3rd
1

Button
Qualifying position
Number of times
1st
1
2nd
3
3rd
1
4th
1
5th
2

Alonso
Qualifying position
Number of times
1st
3
2nd
1
3rd
3
9th
1
11th
1

Only three other drivers have won in the last three seasons. Rosberg and Maldonado, took their victory from pole whilst Raikkonen won from 4th.

 

Number and percentage of times qualifying position yields win since 2010

Qualifying position
Number of victories
Percent of victories
1st
26
44%
2nd
17
29%
3rd
7
12%
4th
3
5%
5th
3
5%

Alonso's wins from 9th and 11th form 1% each of the total wins.

 

Thursday, 30 August 2012

Results

Race Results 2012

Australia
Malaysia
China
Bahrain
Spainish
Monoco
Canada
Valencia
British
Germany
Hamilton
3rd
3rd
3rd
8th
8th
5th
1st
Ret
8th
Ret
Button
1st
14th
2nd
18th
9th
16th
16th
8th
10th
2nd
Vettel
2nd
11th
5th
1st
6th
4th
4th
DNF
3rd
2nd
Webber
4th
4th
4th
4th
11th
1st
7th
4th
1st
8th
Alonso
5th
1st
9th
7th
2nd
3rd
5th
1st
2nd
1st
Massa
DNF
15th
13th
9th
15th
6th
10th
16th
4th
12th
Raikkonen
7th
5th
14th
2nd
3rd
9th
8th
2nd
5th
4th
Grosjean
DNF
DNF
6th
3rd
4th
DNF
2nd
DNF
6th
18th
Schumacher
DNF
10th
DNF
10th
DNF
DNF
DNF
3rd
7th
7th
Rosberg
12th
13th
1st
5th
7th
2nd
6th
6th
15th
10th
Perez
8th
2nd
11th
11th
DNF
11th
3rd
9th
DNF
5th
Kobayashi
6th
DNF
10th
13th
5th
DNF
9th
DNF
11th
5th
Di Resta
10th
7th
12th
6th
14th
7th
11th
7th
DNF
11th
Hulkenberg
DNF
9th
15th
12th
10th
8th
12th
5th
12th
12th
Senna
16th
6th
7th
22nd
DNF
10th
17th
10th
9th
17th
Maldonado
13th
19th
8th
DNF
1st
DNF
13th
12th
16th
15th
Hungary
Belgium
Italy
Singapore
Japan
Korea
India
Abu Dhabi
USA
Brazil
Hamilton
1st
DNF
1st
DNF
5th
10th
4th
DNF
1st
Ret
Button
6th
1st
DNF
2nd
4th
DNF
5th
4th
5th
1st
Vettel
4th
2nd
DNF
1st
1st
1st
1st
3rd
2nd
6th
Webber
8th
6th
DNF
11th
DNF
2nd
3rd
DNF
Ret
4th
Alonso
5th
DNF
3rd
3rd
DNF
3rd
2nd
2nd
3rd
2nd
Massa
9th
5th
4th
8th
2nd
4th
6th
7th
4th
3rd
Raikkonen
2nd
3rd
5th
6th
6th
5th
7th
1st
6th
10th
Grosjean
3rd
DNF
DSQ
7th
DNF
7th
9th
DNF
7th
Ret
Schumacher
DNF
7th
6th
DNF
11th
13th
DNF
11th
16th
7th
Rosberg
10th
11th
7th
5th
DNF
DNF
11th
DNF
13th
15th
Perez
14th
DNF
2nd
10th
DNF
11th
DNF
15th
11th
Ret
Kobayashi
18th
DNF
9th
13th
3rd
DNF
14th
6th
14th
9th
Di Resta
12th
10th
8th
4th
12th
12th
12th
9th
15th
19th
Hulkenberg
11th
4th
DNF
14th
7th
6th
8th
DNF
8th
5th
Senna
7th
12th
10th
DNF
14th
15th
10th
8th
10th
Ret
Maldonado
13th
DNF
11th
DNF
8th
14th
16th
5th
9th
Ret

 

Qualifying Results 2012

Australia
Malaysia
China
Bahrain
Spainish
Monoco
Canada
Valencia
British
Germany
Hamilton
DNF
1st
2nd
2nd
1st
4th
2nd
2nd
8th
8th
Button
2nd
2nd
6th
4th
11th
13th
10th
9th
18th
7th
Vettel
6th
6th
11th
1st
8th
10th
1st
1st
4th
2nd
Webber
5th
4th
7th
3rd
12th
2nd
4th
19th
2st
3rd
Alonso
12th
9th
9th
9th
3rd
6th
3rd
11th
1st
1st
Massa
16th
12th
12th
14th
17th
7th
6th
13th
5th
14th
Raikkonen
18th
5th
5th
11th
5th
8th
12th
5th
6th
10th
Grosjean
3rd
7th
10th
7th
4th
5th
7th
4th
10th
15th
Schumacher
4th
3rd
3rd
18th
9th
1st
9th
12th
3rd
4th
Rosberg
7th
7th
1st
5th
7th
3rd
5th
6th
13th
17th
Perez
17th
10th
8th
8th
6th
24th
15th
15th
17th
12th
Kobayashi
13th
17th
4th
12th
10th
12th
11th
7th
12th
13th
Di Resta
15th
14th
15th
10th
13th
15th
8th
10th
11th
9th
Hulkenberg
9th
16th
16th
13th
14th
11th
13th
8th
9th
5th
Senna
14th
13th
13th
15nd
18th
14th
16th
14th
15th
6th
Maldonado
8th
11th
14th
17th
2nd
9th
17th
13th
7th
16h
Hungary
Belgium
Italy
Singapore
Japan
Korea
India
Abu Dhabi
USA
Brazil
Hamilton
1st
8th
1st
1st
9th
3rd
3rd
1st
2nd
1st
Button
4th
1st
2nd
4th
3rd
11th
4th
5th
12th
2nd
Vettel
3rd
11th
6th
3rd
1st
2nd
1st
24th
1st
4th
Webber
11th
7th
11th
7th
2nd
1st
2nd
2nd
3rd
3rd
Alonso
6th
6th
10th
5th
7th
4th
5th
5th
9th
8th
Massa
7th
14th
3rd
13th
11th
6th
6th
7th
7th
5th
Raikkonen
5th
4th
8th
12th
8th
5th
7th
4th
5th
9th
Grosjean
2nd
9th
DSQ
8th
5th
7th
11th
8th
4th
18th
Schumacher
17th
13th
5th
9th
13th
10th
14th
12th
6th
14th
Rosberg
13th
18th
7th
10th
15th
9th
10th
6th
17th
10th
Perez
14th
5th
13th
14th
6th
12th
8th
10th
15th
13th
Kobayashi
15th
2nd
9th
18th
4th
13th
17th
14th
16th
15th
Di Resta
12th
10th
4th
6th
12th
14th
16th
11th
13th
11th
Hulkenberg
10th
12th
DNQ
11th
10th
8th
12th
9th
8th
7th
Senna
8th
17th
14th
17th
18th
18th
13th
13th
11th
12th
Maldonado
9th
3rd
12th
2nd
14th
15th
9th
3rd
10th
6th